WEEKLY WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT July 14, 2004 DISCUSSION: 1. Poor performance of the wet season rains over the past several years has resulted in a long term, multi-yeardrought across the Sool Plateau and the nearby Togdheer Region in northern Somalia. The 2004 season, however, saw an overall good performance of the rains. Despite these rains, large long term moisture deficits and drought remain. The next chance for significant rainfall will come in October. 2. The long rains this year were much below normal across eastern Kenya, the Somali region of Ethiopia and across the Galguduud and Mudug regions of Somalia. The season started late and ended early, as little rain fell during March or May. Totals were less than half of normal for the season, with deficits of 100 to 150 mm. Some areas in the higher elevations have deficits of 250+ mm. This may result in degradation of pastures and reduction in water availability to people and livestock as the dry season progresses. The next chance for significant rain will be with the onset of the short rains in October. 3. The 2004 Belg season (February-May) was drier than normal across the South Tigray zone as well as North Wello and South Wello zones in the Ahmara region. Rainfall was about half of normal for the season. The season also started late and ended early, with most of the season's rainfall occurring during the month of April. The typical length of the Belg rains is about 10 weeks. The 2004 Belg season lasted only 4 to 5 weeks. The shorter and drier than normal season undermined agricultural activities in the area and resulted in crop yield reductions and even crop failures. The dryness may also hamper land preparation efforts for Meher crops. Rainfall is expected to increase during the period, favoring Meher crops. Rainfall amounts of 40 to locally 80 mm are expected across the area during the period. 4. Multi-seasonal drought has resulted in long term moisture deficits across southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania. Poor performance of the March-May rains has exacerbated long term drought conditions across the area. The long term drought will reduce water supplies and reservoir levels, degrade pastures and may result in reduced sub-soil moisture availability for second season crops. 5. Rainfall during the month of June was lighter than normal across southern Mali, western parts of Burkina Faso, northern Ivory Coast and adjacent parts of Guinea. Rainfall totals for June 2004 were only 30 to 60 percent of normal in these areas. This has resulted in planting delays for cotton and cereal grains across the area. The beginning of July saw a marked increase in rainfall, with 50 to 130 mm of rain falling during the first 10 days of the month. The early July rains helped to erase deficits and favored recently planted crops. However, the delay in planting may result in yield reductions due to a shortened growing season. These effects would be mitigated if the rains end late. However, the effect would be exacerbated should the rains end prematurely. Seasonal rains are expected to continue during the period. 6. Little if any rain has fallen during June or so far in July across southwestern Ethiopia, southeastern Sudan and far northwestern Kenya. This has resulted in short term dryness and deficits ranging from 50 to 120 mm , as well as stress to local crops. Across the southern portions of the Ethiopian highlands, including the Ahmara Mountains, rainfall during June and early July has been erratic and lighter than normal. June rainfall has been 35 to 60 percent of normal, with short falls of 25 to 105 mm. According to the June 2004 Agro-Met Bulletin (Vol. 14, No. 18) from Ethiopia's National Meteorological Services Agency, this has caused "moderate to bad general field conditions" and has favored the outbreak of pests in some areas. Showers are expected to make a return to the area, which may help to ease deficits and improve filed conditions. 7. Rainfall has been spotty and light since about June 20th across northern Uganda and far western portions of Kenya, including some major crop areas of the southwest near Lake Victoria. This has resulted in a 3-4 week long dry spell, which may cause stress to reproductive main season grains. Fortunately, temperatures have been near normal. Therefore heat stress is not as much of a concern. Recent showers have provided some relief to northwestern Uganda. Showers are expected to increase during the period, which would end the dry spell and ease stress on main season grains. AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt