Africa Weather Hazards Assessment Text Explanation
June 17 - 23, 2004

1) Long term drought continues in the Sanaag and Sool Provinces of northern Somalia due to many seasons of little to no
rainfall in the area.  The 2004 season so far has been much wetter than normal, though the seasonal moisture was not
sufficient to substantially mitigate the long term drought.

2) May rainfall totals in much of central Somalia ran from 0-50 percent of normal, further intensifying dryness in the
area and degrading pasture conditions.  June has seen, as expected, little to no rainfall in the region.  Coupled with the
recent dryness is the fact that rains have been meager at best during the previous two seasons and substantial yearly
deficits have accumulated.  No relief is expected during the next months as the dry season has set in.

3) Belg rains in north central Ethiopia ran from 20-50 percent of normal for the 2004 March-April-May season.  Dryness was
once again evident during the past week, especially in the eastern areas, as hydrological and agricultural problems are
likely.  Forecasts are more optimistic during the next week, though dryness may actually be helpful for any harvesting
activities.

4) In north central and northwestern Ethiopia, Meher seasonal rainfall has been somewhat slow to start and thereafter
erratic, with dryness again evident during the past week.  Rainfall deficits are not as substantial to the west and south,
though spotty problem areas are likely.  Meteorological forecasts indicate a good chance for widespread precipitation
during the next week and these rains will increase moisture throughout much of the region.

5) Southern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania remains in a 2-year-long drought due to poor performing rainfall the past 3
seasons. Though the season is generally finished in the region, moisture deficits continue to accumulate.  Little relief
is expected until October/November.

6) Signs of moderate to severe dryness continue to be seen throughout much of northeastern Tanzania, eastern Kenya, and
southeastern Ethiopia due to poor performance of last season's rainfall.  With little relief expected until October, the
area will continue to feel the effects of meager rains with local rainfall departures from normal up to 350 mm locally.
This dryness will be detrimental to pasture conditions throughout the next months.

7) Beneficial rains fell in much of coastal Kenya during the past week, with 7-day accumulations up to 50 mm locally.  The
recent three weeks of rainfall have led to improved conditions in the area, though seasonal dryness remains.  High
resolution gridded precipitation forecasts are indicating heavy rains possible in northern coastal Kenya through June
25th.  While flooding is not likely, these rains should lead to further improved conditions in the area.

8) Up to 250 mm of rainfall was seen along the southern Kenya / Cameroon border region during the past week.  These heavy
rains have likely led to local areas of flooding, though widespread problems should not be a concern.  Additional rains
during the next week may accumulate to 200 mm in the area and may produce further flooding especially in areas saturated
by recent rainfall.


Timothy Love