Africa Weather Hazards Assessment Text Explanation
June 17 - 23, 2004

1) Long term drought continues in the Sanaag and Sool Provinces of northern Somalia due to many seasons of
little to no rainfall in the area.  Though no precipitation was seen throughout the area during the past week,
the 2004 season so far has been much wetter than normal.  This recent moisture was not sufficient, however, to
substantially reduce the long term drought.

2) May rainfall totals in much of central Somalia ran from 0-50 percent of normal, further intensifying dryness
in the area and degrading pasture conditions.  Coupled with the recent dryness is the fact that rains have been
meager at best during the previous two seasons and substantial yearly deficits have accumulated.  No relief is
expected during the next months as the dry season has set in.

3) Belg rains in north central Ethiopia ran from 20-50 percent of normal for the 2004 March-April-May season.
This has likely led to local water shortages and most importantly severe agricultural problems in the region.
Recent weekly rainfall has increased somewhat from the previous dekads and the next week should see further
dryness relief.

4) In north central and northwestern Ethiopia, Meher seasonal rainfall is off to a slow start and is raising
concerns regarding agriculture in the area.  While precipitation has been more abundant to the south of the
hazard region, May 2004 rainfall ran from 10-75 percent of normal, with deficits increasing from west to east.
Meteorological forecast models are promising in that widespread moderate rainfall is likely during the next
week.

5) Southern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania remains in a 2-year-long drought due to poor performing rainfall
the past 3 seasons. Though the season is generally finished in the region, moisture deficits continue to
accumulate.  Little relief is expected until October/November.

6) Signs of moderate to severe dryness continue to be seen throughout much of northeastern Tanzania, eastern
Kenya, and southeastern Ethiopia due to poor performance of last season's rainfall.  With little relief
expected until October, the area will continue to feel the effects of meager rains with local rainfall
departures from normal up to 350 mm locally.  This dryness will be detrimental to pasture conditions throughout
the next months.

7) Rainfall was generally lighter but more widespread during the past week in areas of coastal Kenya and
surrounding coastal regions, as around 10-30 mm fell over the seven day period.  Coupled with the previous
week's heavy coastal rains north of Mombassa, short term dryness has been reduced locally in the region.
Though northern coastal Kenya has seen increased moisture and decreased seasonal rainfall deficits, other areas
nearby remain very dry.  Little to no rainfall is expected during the next week.


Timothy Love