WEEKLY WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT May 19, 2004  DISCUSSION: 
1.  Poor performance of the wet season rains over the past several years has resulted in a long term, multi-year drought across the Sool Plateau and the
nearby Togdheer Region in northern Somalia. This season, however, has seen an overall good performance of the wet season rains. Last week, beneficial
thunderstorms developed along the Sool-Sanaag boarder. However no significant rainfall is expected during the period as the dry season begins to set in.
The next season typically occurs during the month of October. 

2. Rainfall totals over the past year were 40 to 65 percent of normal, resulting in long term moisture deficits ranging from 100 to 150 mm. The deficits
are mainly due to the poor performance of last year's short rains. This year's long rains have so far been near normal. Dry conditions are expected during
the period. 

3. April rains across the northern belg producing areas of Ethiopia were near to above normal, mainly due to abundant rains early in the month. However,
little if any rain has fallen in the vicinity of  Dese and Weldiya since April 20th. This has raised concerns over local agriculture. Dryness is expected
to increase during the period as no significant rainfall is expected. 

4. Multi-seasonal drought has resulted in long term moisture deficits across interior sections of southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania. Short term
dryness has increased moisture deficits and has raised concerns over main season crops across most of the area. Dry conditions are expected during the
period, which will increase stress on crops and reduce water supplies. 

5. March-May rainfall totals so far are only 30 to 60 percent of normal across northeastern Tanzania, much of interior eastern Kenya and the pastoral areas
of south-central Ethiopia. This has resulted in deficits of 50 to locally 200+ mm. The long rains typically end during mid-late May, therefore the
potential for relief is limited until the onset of the
short rains in October. Along the Kenya coast, a very dry May has resulted in March-May rainfall totals that are only 20-50 percent of normal. May is
typically the wettest month of the year along the coast, however heavy rains are also possible during June. Conditions are expected to become more
favorable for rainfall along the coast, with rain expected to begin during the weekend and last into the middle of next week. This will help to ease
dryness and
benefit local agriculture. However, some of the rain may be heavy and cause localized flash flooding. 

6. Heavy rains during recent weeks has resulted in high antecedent moisture levels across southern and eastern Nigeria, as well as adjacent parts of
western Cameroon. Additional heavy rainfall may result in flooding. Although not depicted on the map, conditions will be favorable for locally heavy
rainfall across all of Nigeria, Benin and Togo, as well as northern Ghana, southern Burkina Faso and the southwestern corner of Nigeria. As a result, the
potential for isolated flash flooding exists in these areas. 

AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt