WEEKLY WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT May 11, 2004  DISCUSSION: 

1.  Poor performance of the wet season rains over the past several years has resulted in a long
term, multi-year drought across the Sool Plateau and the nearby Togdheer
Region in northern Somalia. This season, however, has seen an overall good performance of the wet
season rains. Satellite estimates show that rainfall was 25 to 50+ mm
above normal for April 2004. However, long term deficits remain across the area. A few showers are
possible, mainly across the southern parts of the region. However, rain
chances will continue to decrease throughout May as the main rainy season ends. The next season
typically is during the month of October. 

2. Rainfall totals for 2003 were 40 to 65 percent of normal, resulting in long term moisture
deficits. However, the long rains have so far been near to above normal which has
resulted in improvement. Dry conditions are expected during the period. 

3. The torrential rains which caused widespread flooding across western Kenya have subsided
allowing flood waters to recede. However, locally heavy rains have continued
over the southwestern corner of the country into southeastern Uganda. Additional showers and
locally heavy thunderstorms may result in locallized flooding problems during
the period. 

4. Multi-seasonal drought has resulted in long term moisture deficits across interior sections of
southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania. Short term dryness has
increased moisture deficits and has raised concerns over main season crops across most of the
area. Dry conditions are expected during the period, which will increase
stress on crops and reduce water supplies. 

5. March-May rainfall has been about half of normal across portions of eastern Kenya, northeastern
Tanzania and parts of southern Ethiopia with deficits of 50 to 200+ mm. 
This has raised concerns over main season crops, pasture lands and water supplies. Chances for
improvement will decrease during May into June as rainfall typically
becomes more spotty as the long rains come to an end. In the northern belg areas of Ethiopia near
Weldiya, conditions have been dry over the past few weeks. It appears
that dry conditions will continue into next week. As a result, a new dryness hazard area may be
added to the region for the May 20-26 assessment. 

6. Heavy rains during recent weeks has resulted in high antecedent moisture levels along the
Nigeria-Cameroon border. Additional rainfall may result in some flooding,
especially early in the period. Heavy rains over central Nigeria may have resulted in flooding
problems. Additional rains may aggravate these flooding problems. 

7. Heavy rains last week and the week before may have caused flooding in and around the region in
southwestern Ethiopia that is bounded by Oromiya and Gambela. Additional daily showers and
thunderstorms are expected over the area. Some of the rain may be heavy. Therefore, the potential
for flooding exists over the region. 

8. At the time of writing, a well developed tropical disturbance was located over the central
Indian Ocean about 2000 km off the coast of Madagascar. Conditions are favorable for the system to
develop into a tropical cyclone. It is expected to pass well east of the Madagascar coast and is
not expected to have a direct impact on Africa or Madagascar. However, the situation should be
monitored in the event of a change in direction. 
  
  

AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt