Africa Weather Hazards Assessment Text Explanation
April 29 - May 5, 2004

1) Up to 20 mm of rainfall was noted in parts of the Togdheer Province of northern Somalia during the
past week, with lighter amounts to the east.  The recent precipitation has brought much needed relief
to the region, though the area continues to feel the effects from multi-season drought.  Light rainfall
is possible during the next week as hydrological deficits remain and pasture conditions improve.

2) Healthy rainfall, with weekly totals exceeding 50 mm, was seen in parts of southeastern Ethiopia
where the previous two seasons of rainfall shortfalls have led to localized drought.  The situation has
greatly improved this year, and continued moisture will likely mitigate dryness in the area.  Moderate
rains are expected during the next week.

3) Very heavy rains fell during the past week in parts of the Shebelle and Jubba River Basins in
southern Somalia, and local stream flooding may be occurring.  Any flooding will likely be confined to
along the rivers in the area, though some heavy rainfall may be seen over the area during the next
week, leading to additional problems.

4) Weekly precipitation totals up to and exceeding 100 mm occurred along the eastern shore of Lake
Victoria, as some local flooding problems remain.  Meteorological forecasts indicate a possibility of
greater than 150 mm northeast of the lake during the next week which would further exacerbate the
situation.

5) Multi-season dryness remains entrenched in parts of eastern Africa along the southern Kenya /
Tanzania border region.  2004 March-present rainfall deficits in the area are approaching 200 mm
locally, as the area is experiencing between 20-80 percent of normal precipitation for the 2-month
period.  Dryness should continue during the next week, though temperatures are likely to be close to
normal.

6) Virtually no rainfall was recorded during the past week in southern and eastern Angola, Namibia,
Zimbabwe, and western Zambia, as river levels of the Upper Zambezi and Kafue decrease.  While little
rainfall is expected during the forecast period, reports of maintained flooding in and around the
Caprivi Strip region in northeastern Namibia warrant the continuation of the hazard area.

7) Local flooding may again be possible in parts of Cameroon and southeastern Nigeria during the next
week, as precipitation totals exceeding 200 mm may occur in the area.  The heavier amounts will be
directly related to mountain influences, and areas which normally receive the heaviest rains should be
again targeted

Timothy Love