WEEKLY WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT MARCH 17, 2004  DISCUSSION: 

1. The poor performance of seasonal rains in recent years has resulted in a severe 
multi-year drought across the SoolPlateau region of northern Somalia.  The drought 
has resulted in severe pasture degradation and the depletion of water supplies. 
There is the possibility of a few isolated showers during the period. However the next 
chance of significant rain will not occur until April, when the main rainy season 
typically begins. 

2. The aggregate deficits of  the past two seasons have resulted in rainfall totals 
that were only 40 to 65 percent of the annual normal for the 2003 calender year across 
far southern parts of the Somali and Oromiya regions of Ethiopia. These dry areas 
extend into adjacent portions of Somalia and Kenya. The 2003 rainfall deficits 
may have resulted in pasture degradation, reduced water supplies and reduced soil 
moisture levels. Improvement is possible with the onset of the long season rains in April.

3. The cumulative effects of several seasons of poor performing rains has caused a 
long term drought across southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania. Abundant early 
rains have resulted in soil moisture and vegetation improvement across the area, and 
have also increased water supplies for reservoirs. However, deficits still remain. 
Additional improvement is expected during the upcoming long rainy season. The long 
rains typically begin in March and last through May.

4. Abundant rains have resulted in drought relief  across most of central and southern 
Mozambique. However, in eastern Inhambane Province, rainfall was light and seasonal 
rainfall totals remain around half of normal resulting in severe drought. Showers are 
possible during the period, however little improvement is expected. 

5. A very dry early season was followed by some welcome rains late in the season 
across central and southeastern Mozambique. However, rainfall has been erratic in 
some locations. The combination of early dryness, lingering deficits and erratic 
rainfall may have a negative impact on agriculture. Occasional showers are expected 
during the period, therefore some improvement is expected. 

6. A two year dry spell has resulted in low reservoir and stream flows across western 
Swaziland and adjacent portions of Mpumalanga Province in South Africa. However, 
recent timely rains have favored agriculture and improved crop prospects. Additional 
rainfall is expected late in the period as a frontal system approaches the area. 

7. Abundant rainfall over the past several weeks has resulted in elevated river 
levels and saturated soils across western Zambia and adjacent parts of Namibia, Angola, 
Botswana and Zimbabwe. This has raised concerns about flooding. Thundershowers are 
expected early in the period, some of which may be locally heavy. However, rainfall is
expected to become lighter late in the period. As a result, the flood risk will decrease. 

8. A two month dry spell in Morocco and a dry February in northern Tunisia has raised 
concerns over winter grains in northwestern Africa. Dry conditions are expected during 
the period. 

AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt