WEEKLY WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT MARCH 10, 2004  DISCUSSION: 

1. The poor performance of seasonal rains in recent years has resulted in a severe multi-year drought across the Sool
Plateau region of northern Somalia.  The drought has resulted in severe pasture degradation and the depletion of
water supplies. The next chance of significant rain will occur in April, when the main rainy season typically begins. 

2. The aggregate deficits of  the past two seasons have resulted in rainfall totals that were only 40 to 65 percent of
the annual normal for the 2003 calender year across far southern parts of the Somali and Oromiya regions of Ethiopia.
These dry areas extend into adjacent portions of Somalia and Kenya. The 2003 rainfall deficits may have resulted in
pasture degradation, reduced water supplies and reduced soil moisture levels. Improvement is possible with the
onset of the long season rains in April.

3. The cumulative effects of several seasons of poor performing rains has caused a long term drought across
southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania. Abundant early rains have resulted in soil moisture and vegetation
improvement across the area, and have also increased water supplies for reservoirs. However, deficits still remain.
Additional improvement is expected during the upcoming long rainy season. The long rains typically begin in March
and last through May.

4. Abundant rains have resulted in drought relief  across most of central and southern Mozambique. However, in
eastern Inhambane Province, rainfall was light and seasonal rainfall totals remain around half of normal resulting in
severe drought. Scattered showers are possible during the period, however little improvement is expected. 

5. Very dry conditions during December resulted in drought across the Maize Triangle in South Africa, as well as
Lesotho, eastern Zimbabwe, southern Malawi and central Mozambique. More seasonable rains in January were
followed by below normal rainfall amounts in February across eastern Zimbabwe, central Mozambique and southern
Malawi. As a result, deficits persist as well as dryness concerns over main season agriculture. In South Africa's
Maize Triangle and Lesotho, January rains were scattered and spotty but were an increase over December.
Temperatures during January were somewhat cooler, as December was warmer than normal. In February, however,
timely rains and cool temperatures raised crop prospects across most of the Maize Triangle and eastern Lesotho.
However, these rains were accompanied by damaging hail in Lesotho. Recent rains have resulted in further
improvement across most of southeastern Africa. However, residual deficits remain over parts of the southern Maize
Triangle, western Lesotho, central Mozambique and southern Malawi. 

6. A two year dry spell has resulted in low reservoir and stream flows across western Swaziland and adjacent
portions of Mpumalanga Province in South Africa. However, recent timely rains have favored agriculture and
improved crop prospects. Additional rainfall is expected late in the period as a frontal system approaches the area. 

7. A recent bout of heavy rainfall has resulted in swollen rivers and high amounts of runoff in and around the
Limpopo Basin. The Limpopo river was reported to be 2 to 3 meters above flood stage in Mozambique, resulting in
flooding problems. A frontal system late in the period may produce additional rainfall in the area. As a result, the
potential for continued flooding is high. Similarly, heavy rains in recent weeks has raised concerns over flooding
across parts of interior southern Africa. Rainfall is expected to be light across most of this region during the period,
and the risk of flooding will gradually decrease as the river levels  subside. 

8. A two month dry spell in Morocco and a dry February in northern Tunisia has raised concerns over winter grains
in northwestern Africa. Recent showers have resulted in some improvement, however dry conditions are expected
during the period. 

9. TC16S (Gafilo) slammed the northeast coast of Madagascar late on March 6th  with winds of 160 MPH and
torrential rains. The system moved into the Mozambique channel, where it turned south and then east. This brought
Gafilo into southern Madagascar. As Gafilo moves across southern Madagascar, heavy rains and some damaging
winds are expected. Additional rains are expected early in the period across northwestern Madagascar, where soils
are saturated and the rivers are swollen. Therefore, the potential of additional flooding and possible landslides exists.
As the system moves off the coast, conditions will improve and the risk of flooding, landslides and wind damage will
diminish. 

AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt