WEEKLY WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT MARCH 3, 2004  DISCUSSION: 
1. The poor performance of seasonal rains in recent years has resulted in a severe multi-year drought across the Sool
Plateau region of northern Somalia.  The drought has resulted in severe pasture degradation and the depletion of
water supplies. The next chance of significant rain will occur in April, when the main rainy season typically begins. 

2. The aggregate deficits of  the past two seasons have resulted in rainfall totals that were only 40 to 65 percent of
the annual normal for the 2003 calender year across far southern parts of the Somali and Oromiya regions of Ethiopia.
These dry areas extend into adjacent portions of Somalia and Kenya. The 2003 rainfall deficits may have resulted in
pasture degradation, reduced water supplies and reduced soil moisture levels. Improvement is possible with the
onset of the long season rains in April.

3. The cumulative effects of several seasons of poor performing rains has caused a long term drought across
southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania. Abundant early rains have resulted in soil moisture and vegetation
improvement across the area, and have also increased water supplies for reservoirs. However, deficits still remain.
Additional improvement is expected during the upcoming long rainy season. The long rains typically begin in March
and last through May.

4. Seasonal rainfall totals have been well below normal across Manica, Sofala and Inhambane provinces in
Mozambique, as well as in Manicaland Province in Zimbabwe. Very dry conditions during December and February
have resulted in agricultural drought with seasonal rainfall totals of about half of normal and deficits of 200 to 400
mm. Although showers and storms are expected during the period, the relief may be too late for crops. In Maputo
Province in Mozambique and extreme eastern Swaziland, rainfall has been erratic, with little in the way of rainfall
beneficial to agriculture. In western Swaziland and eastern Mpumalanga province in South Africa, dry conditions
during the past two seasons have combined with dry conditions during the spring to result in hydrological drought
and reduced water supplies. However, timely rains in January and February along with cool temperatures have
resulted in favorable conditions for agriculture. Additional showers should result in further improvement. 

5. Very dry conditions during December resulted in drought across the Maize Triangle in South Africa, as well as
Lesotho, eastern Zimbabwe, southern Malawi and central Mozambique. More seasonable rains in January were
followed by below normal rainfall amounts in February across eastern Zimbabwe, central Mozambique and southern
Malawi. As a result, deficits persist as well as dryness concerns over main season agriculture. In South Africa's
Maize Triangle and Lesotho, January rains were scattered and spotty but were an increase over December.
Temperatures during January were somewhat cooler, as December was warmer than normal. In February, however,
timely rains and cool temperatures raised crop prospects across most of the Maize Triangle and eastern Lesotho.
However, these rains were accompanied by damaging hail in Lesotho. Rainfall deficits still remain across much of
Limpopo and Free State in South Africa, as well as the western half of Lesotho. Occasional showers and continued
cool temperatures during the period should result in some further improvement. 

6. Recent heavy rains have resulted in swollen rivers and saturated soils in and around southwestern Zambia.
Flooding has been reported along the Okavango and Kaufe Rivers. Additional rainfall is expected during the period,
although totals should be less than what has been received over the past few weeks. These additional rains may
result in some flooding, especially near rivers. 

7. A two month dry spell from mid-December through mid-February has resulted in  reduced soil  moisture for winter
grains in Morocco and northwestern Algeria. Recent storminess has resulted in some improvement; however,
deficits remain. Conditions are expected to be dry during the period. 

8. February precipitation totals were less than half of normal across northeastern Algeria and northern Tunisia. This
short term dryness, combined with above normal temperatures, has reduced moisture for winter grains.  Recent
storminess has resulted is some improvement. Showers during the period should result in additional improvement.   

9. TC16S (Gafilo) has developed in the southern India Ocean. At the time of writing, TC16S was located about 545
miles northeast of Mauritius and has maximum sustained winds of 45 knots.  The system is expected to make landfall
in northern Madagascar on the 6th. Heavy rains and strong winds are possible in and around the storm. Please see
the latest cyclone bulletins for the latest information on the intensity and expected motion of the system. 

AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt