Africa Weather Hazards Assessment Text Explanation February 19-25, 2004 1) Long term drought continues in the Sool Plateau region of northern Somalia due to poor rainfall during the recent years. No improvement is likely until at least March as hydrological and agricultural problems remain. 2) No changes were seen during the past month and a half in parts of southeastern Ethiopia / western Somalia experiencing drought due to poor rainfall the past two seasons. In drought affected areas of south central Ethiopia and north central Kenya, a few light to moderate showers produced rainfall during the past week in the western section, though dryness prevailed elsewhere. Hydrological deficits continue to exist throughout both regions and little precipitation is likely during the next week. 3) Abnormally heavy rains seen throughout much of eastern Tanzania during the past few weeks have abated during the last 7 days, and little precipitation was noted throughout much of the region experiencing multi-season drought. From southern Kenya through southeastern Tanzania, water shortages have led to problems in both hydrological and agricultural aspects, though conditions have generally improved during the past month. While well water levels have, for the most part, increased, the general trend during the next week is for dryness in the north and rains to skim the southern hazard region. 4) Darker shading represents more severe dryness, while lighter shading represents more optimistic conditions. The circulation that has been leading to dryness throughout much of central and southern Mozambique and southeastern Zimbabwe has resulted in heavier thunderstorms immediately surrounding the area during the past week. While dryness continued in much of the Hazard region, very heavy rains fell in the Zambezia province of Mozambique, reducing seasonal rainfall deficits in the area. Precipitation forecasts are generally encouraging for the next week. 5) Rainfall maintained or increased its intensity throughout much of eastern South Africa during the past week, further raising moisture availability for agriculture in the region. While hydrological dryness remains for the season into Lesotho and Swaziland, substantial deficits continue to exist. The weather pattern is forecast to change during the next week, which would result in a less widespread coverage of thunderstorms throughout the area. 6) While seasonal mitigating factors continue to play a role in its evolution, long term drought is evident in parts of eastern South Africa, Swaziland, and southern Mozambique. See Hazards #4 and #5 for updates. 7) 7-Day precipitation totals exceeding 100 mm locally in areas along the Okavango and Upper Zambezi river basins have resulted in raised stream levels in the region. River levels in the areas have already exceeded their 20-year highs, and additional precipitation is expected during the period. 8) Spotty light showers during the last week did nothing to relieve seasonal dryness seen in much of Morocco and northern Algeria. Hydrological deficits are leading to agricultural problems with winter wheat and barley crops throughout most of Morocco and into northern Algeria. A fairly intense storm system is prognosticated to move into the area around February 20th and may produce locally heavy rains. Timothy Love