Africa Weather Hazards Assessment Text Explanation
February 12-18, 2004

1) Long term drought continues in the Sool Plateau region of northern Somalia due to poor rainfall during the recent
years.  No improvement likely until at least March as hydrological and agricultural problems remain.

2) No changes were seen during the past month in parts of southeastern Ethiopia / western Somalia experiencing drought due
to poor rainfall the past two seasons.  In south-central Ethiopia / north-central Kenya, January rainfall totals were
25-75 mm above normal.  This has helped to increase local moisture availability for pastoral uses, though hydrological
problems remain.  2003-04 rainfall totals remain 50-300 mm below normal for the period beginning January 2003.  Forecasts
indicate dryness during the next week.

3) Rainfall has increased dramatically during the past two weeks throughout much of southern and eastern Tanzania, and
this has led to vastly improved seasonal moisture conditions.  While seasonal dryness is no longer a major concern in much
of Tanzania, dryness exists in southern Kenya.  Due to the very poor rainfall occurring in 2003, long term hydrological
and agricultural drought does continue in southern Kenya / eastern Tanzania.  Removal of these moisture deficits will not
likely happen until seasonal rains resume in a couple months.

4) Darker shading represents more severe dryness, while lighter shading represents slightly better conditions.  Rainfall
decreased during the past week in much of Zimbabwe and central and southern Mozambique.  While this has reduced flooding
concerns in the area, it does not bode well for the intense seasonal dryness in the area.  Season-to-date rains continue
to run from 20-50 percent of normal locally, with widespread areas less than 80 percent of normal.  This has caused large
cropped areas of the region to fail and accessing drinking water is locally problematic.  Dryness is likely during the
next week in much of the area, though some rainfall may occur in the northern hazard region.

5) Coupled with dryness in Mozambique, rainfall increased during the past week in much of eastern South Africa, Lesotho,
and central Botswana.  This has alleviated seasonal dryness in southeastern Botswana and has reduced dryness in parts of
the Maize Triangle and eastern Lesotho.  With any luck for the area, the current weather pattern will hold during the next
week and lead to similar rains in the short term.

6) While seasonal mitigating factors continue to play a role in its evolution, long term drought is evident in parts of
eastern South Africa, Swaziland, and southern Mozambique.  Heavy rains near Maputo toward the end of January have
dramatically decreased hydrological deficits in the area, though other areas remain quite dry.  As in area #5, showers and
thunderstorms are expected near the southern Maize Triangle during the next week, though the Mozambican areas should
remain dry.

7) Flooding along the Okavango River in northeastern Namibia has not increased during the past week, thanks to weaker
rainfall over the basin, though problems remain.  Rains should increase somewhat during the next few days, bringing higher
river levels and additional flooding to the area in and around the Kavango province.

8) No rainfall was seen over Morocco and northern Algeria during the past week, as seasonal precipitation deficits
continue to increase.  An overall lack of rain during the past few months has led to hydrological and agricultural
problems, especially within Morocco, as soil moisture deficits are causing problems with winter wheat.  Precipitation
should generally be light during the next period.


Timothy Love