WEEKLY WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT JANUARY 29, 2004  DISCUSSION: 
  1. The poor performance of seasonal rains in recent years has resulted in a severe multi-year drought across the Sool Plateau 
  region of northern Somalia.  The drought has resulted in severe pasture degradation and the depletion of water supplies. The next 
  chance of significant rain will occur in April, when the main rainy season typically begins. 
  2. The aggregate deficits of  the past two wet seasons has resulted in rainfall totals that were only 40 to 65 percent of the annual 
  normal for the 2003 calendar year across far southern parts of the Somali and Oromiya regions of Ethiopia. These dry areas 
  extend into adjacent portions of Somalia and Kenya, too. The 2003 rainfall deficits may have resulted in degraded pastures, 
  reduced water supplies and below normal soil and sub-soil moisture. Unusually late rains during the past week, however, have 
  provided some welcome moisture. 
  3. Second season rains were much lighter than normal across much of central Kenya and eastern Tanzania. This includes much of 
  the bi-modal crop areas of southern Kenya and Tanzania. The dry conditions may have a negative effect on pastures and may have
  resulted in second season crop yield reductions and failures.  Significant improvement is not expected until March/April with the 
  onset of the long rains. 
  4. Hot, dry conditions during the past several seasons has resulted in severe long term drought across much of east-central and 
  northeastern Tanzania, as well as southeastern Kenya. The drought has resulted in severely degraded pastures, very low 
  streamflows, very low reservoir levels and greatly reduced soil moisture for second season crops. The drought  in the Ruvu River 
  Basin  has left Dar Es Salaam with a water shortage. Very low dam levels in the Rufiji River Basin has greatly reduced 
  hydroelectric power generation, requiring nationwide power rationing in Tanzania.   Several weeks of soaking rains will be needed 
  to end the drought. The next chance for steady soaking rains will occur in March and April. 
  5. Very dry conditions and above normal temperatures from November through mid-January have resulted in agricultural drought 
  across central and southeastern Mozambique, as well as eastern Zimbabwe.  Similar conditions prevailed across western 
  Swaziland and adjacent portions of South Africa, where the past two seasons have been dry. Recent soaking rains have eased the 
  drought somewhat across this region, with 50 to 150 mm of rainfall observed this past week. Torrential rains (100-250 mm) 
  significantly reduced deficits across Maputo province in Mozambique, as well as adjacent parts of South Africa and Swaziland, but 
  may have resulted in some flooding. Showers and storms are expected across central Mozambique and eastern Zimbabwe, with 
  the best rains fall in the northern part of the region. Occasional showers are expected across southern Mozambique, with mostly 
  dry conditions expected across western Swaziland. 
  6. Rainfall so far this season has been only 50 to 75 percent of normal across the northeastern portion of South Africa’s Maize 
  Triangle, Lesotho, parts of eastern Zimbabwe and  portions of  Mozambique. Across the Maize Triangle, periods of heat have 
  increased evapotranspiration and water demands. The resulting dryness may have a negative effect on summer crops. Recent rains
  and cooler temperatures  have helped to ease the dryness. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across eastern Zimbabwe, 
  northwestern Mozambique, southern Malawi and Lesotho. This should continue the improving trend. However, deficits early in the 
  season may have resulted in a reduced area planted. Therefore, even if good rains are observed during the rest of the season, 
  production may be reduced. Across the Maize Triangle, conditions are expected to be dry during the period with near normal 
  temperatures. 
  7. Much below normal rainfall during the 2002-03 rainy season has resulted in reduced groundwater levels, low reservoirs, low 
  stream flows and reduced soil moisture in northeastern South Africa, Swaziland and southern Mozambique. 
  8. TC09S (Elita) has developed in the Mozambique Channel.  This system has the potential to produce torrential rains and strong 
  winds across western Madagascar. The convection which organized to become TC09S has already produced copious amounts of 
  rainfall across northwestern Madagascar. The exact track and intensity of the system will determine where the heaviest rains and 
  strongest winds will occur.  At the time of writing, there were indications that TC09S could produce heavy rains and strong winds 
  across eastern Mozambique late in the period. Please refer to the Cyclone Bulletins for the latest information. 
  9. Rainfall has been very light across Morocco and northwestern Algeria since early December, following a wet October and 
  November. This has reduced moisture for winter crop emergence and development. A weak frontal system may produce some 
  showers across far northern Morocco and Algeria. However, another dry week is expected across central and southern Morocco, 
  increasing moisture deficits. 

  AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt