WEEKLY WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT JANUARY 14, 2004  DISCUSSION: 

1. The poor performance of seasonal rains in recent years has resulted in a severe multi-year drought across the Sool
Plateau region in northern Somalia.  The drought has resulted in severe pasture degradation and the depletion of
water supplies. The next chance of significant rain will occur in April, when the main rainy season typically begins. 

2. The aggregate deficits of  the two past wet seasons has resulted in rainfall totals that were 40 to 65 percent of
normal for the 2003 calender year across far southern parts of the Somali and Oromiya regions of Ethiopia. These dry
areas extend into adjacent portions of Somalia and Kenya, too. The 2003 rainfall deficits may have resulted in
degraded pastures, reduced water supplies and below normal soil and sub-soil moisture. Conditions are expected to
remain seasonably dry until March, when the long rains typically begin. 

3. Second season rains were much lighter than normal across much of central Kenya and eastern Tanzania. This
includes much of the bi-modal crop areas of southern Kenya and Tanzania. The dry conditions may have a negative
effect on pastures and may result in second season crop yield reductions and failures. Showers during the period are
expected across southern Kenya and eastern Tanzania. Improvement, however, will be minimal. 

4. Hot, dry conditions during the past several seasons has resulted in severe long term drought across much of east-
central and northeastern Tanzania, as well as southeastern Kenya. The drought has resulted in severely degraded
pastures, very low streamflows, very low reservoir levels and greatly reduced soil moisture for second season crops.
The drought  in the Ruvu River Basin  has left Dar Es Salaam with a water shortage. Very low dam levels in the Rufiji
River Basin has greatly reduced hydroelectric power generation, requiring nationwide power rationing in Tanzania.
Showers are expected across eastern Tanzania and southeastern Kenya. Although the rain will indeed be beneficial,
only marginal improvement is expected. Several weeks of soaking rain are required to ease the impacts of the
drought. Rainfall is typically light and scattered through February across southeastern Kenya and northeastern
Tanzania. The next chance for steady soaking rains will occur in March and April. 

5. Very dry conditions and above normal temperatures during November and December have resulted in agricultural
drought across central and southeastern Mozambique, as well as southern Malawi and extreme eastern Zimbabwe.
Similar conditions prevailed across western Swaziland and adjacent portions of South Africa. The unusually dry
conditions have persisted into early January. Only scattered showers are expected across the region during the
period. More substantial rains are possible across southern Malawi, as well as Zambezia and northern Sofala
provinces in Mozambique.  

6. Rainfall so far this season has been only 50 to 75 percent of normal across much of South Africa's Maize Triangle,
western Lesotho, eastern Swaziland, much of eastern Zimbabwe and  portions of western Mozambique. Across the
Maize Triangle, periods of heat have increased evapotranspiration and water demands. The resulting dryness may
have a negative effect on summer crops. More substantial rains are needed in order to assure a good crop season in
these areas. Precipitations is expected to be scattered across the region during the period. As a result, significant
improvement is not expected. 

7. Much below normal rainfall during the 2002-03 rainy season has resulted in reduced groundwater levels, low
reservoirs, low streamflows and reduced soil moisture in northeastern South Africa, Swaziland and southern
Mozambique. 

AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt