WEEKLY WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT DECEMBER 31, 2003 DISCUSSION: 1. The poor performance and failure of seasonal rains in recent years has resulted in a severe drought across the Sool Plateau in northern Somalia. The drought has resulted in severe pasture degradation and the depletion of water supplies. 2. The aggregate deficits of the two past wet seasons has resulted in rainfall totals that were 40 to 65 percent of normal for the 2003 calendar year across far southern parts of the Somali and Oromiya regions of Ethiopia. These dry areas extend into adjacent portions of Somalia and Kenya, too. The 2003 rainfall deficits may have resulted in degraded pastures, reduced water supplies and below normal soil and sub-soil moisture. Conditions are expected to remain seasonably dry until March, when the long rains typically begin. 3. Drier than normal conditions during the past several weeks has raised concerns over second season crops across southern Kenya and eastern Tanzania. In some areas, the dry weather may result in pasture degradation and low water supplies. Some light, spotty showers are possible. However, no significant improvement is expected during the period. 4. Hot, dry conditions during the past several seasons has resulted in severe long term drought across much of east-central and northeastern Tanzania, as well as southeastern Kenya. The drought has resulted in severely degraded pastures, very low streamflows, very low reservoir levels and greatly reduced soil moisture for second season crops. The drought in the Ruvu River Basin has left Dar Es Salaam with a water shortage. Very low dam levels in the Rufiji River Basin has greatly reduced hydroelectric power generation, requiring nationwide power rationing in Tanzania. Although some shower activity is possible in southeastern Kenya, this will result in only token improvement. Conditions are expected to remain dry across east-central Tanzania. 5. So far this season, less than half of the normal rainfall has occurred across western Lesotho. This has jeopardized main season agriculture in the area and has significantly reduced water supplies. Showers during the period are expected to produce 25 to 50 mm of rainfall, which will improve the overall moisture situation. The rainfall, however, may be to late for main season agriculture in some locations. 6. Very dry conditions and above normal temperatures during November and December have resulted in agricultural drought across northern Manica, northern Sofala and western Zambezia provinces in Mozambique, as well as extreme southern Malawi and east-central Zimbabwe. Rainfall is beginning to increase in the area, indicating the season is getting established. Periods of rain are expected during the period. As a result, improvement is expected. 7. Much below normal rains during the 2002-03 rainy season have resulted in long term dryness, reduced groundwater, low reservoirs, low streamflows and reduced antecedent moisture in northeastern South Africa, Swaziland and southern Mozambique. 8. Two month rainfall totals for November and December are 50 to 80 percent of normal across much of eastern South Africa, eastern Lesotho, eastern Zimbabwe and a large portion of central Mozambique. Temperatures in may areas over the past several weeks have been above normal, increasing evaporation rates. This has raised concerns over main season agriculture and may have reduced water supplies. Many areas, however, are expected to receive some beneficial rains during the period along with cooler temperatures. 9. Large deficits left over from the 2002-03 rainy season are being increased by dry conditions this season. In addition, temperatures during recent weeks have been hot. The result is a severe combination agricultural-hydrological drought. Very low reservoir levels, low streamflows, degraded pastures, reduced moisture for corn and sugarcane have resulted. The drought is worst across western Swaziland and eastern Mpumalanga province in South Africa where several days of heat along with seasonal rainfall totals so far this year of less than half of normal are combined with the huge deficits left over from last year. 10. Seasonal rainfall totals since November 1 are about 60% of normal in and around the Tabora region of Tanzania. A dry November and early December was followed by abundant mid-December rains. However, rainfall has decreased during the last third of December with only scattered light rainfall expected during the first week of January. 11. A strong weekend storm in the Mediterranean Sea is expected to produce rainy, windy conditions across northeastern-most Algeria and northern Tunisia. Rainfall could be heavy. As a result, the potential for flooding exists. Near the mountains, landslides are a possibility. 12. Tropical Cyclone Darius developed in the south Indian Ocean. Darius is expected to remain well east of Madagascar, and have little effect on the island nation or southeastern Africa. Darius may produce some wind and rain in Mauritius. See cyclone bulletins for more information. AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt