AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT TEXT EXPLANATION December 18-24, 2003 1) Cyclone Cela (03S) passed over northern Madagascar, decreased in intensity, and regenerated in the Mozambique Channel. As of December 17, the cyclone was located in the southern Channel and was nearly stationary with winds just below cyclone strength. The storm has already produced very heavy rains in western Madagascar, eliminating any dryness in the area, and may lead to additional precipitation in the south as it moves again eastward. 2) Dryness returned in the Sool Plateau in northern Somalia during the past week, and no additional precipitation is expected during the period. Long term drought continues in the area with June-December rains running 0-50 percent of normal. 3) Little to no rainfall was noted during the past week in eastern and southern Ethiopia, central Somalia, and northeastern Uganda, though parts of northern Kenya received some light showers. These conditions did little to change the dryness situation in the region, and as the season has virtually ended, little relief is expected in the future. The hydrological situation will be more fully assessed during the next couple weeks to determine if a long term off-season coverage is warranted. 4) Widespread moderate to heavy rains fell during the last week throughout much of Tanzania, though areas in the northeast remained fairly dry. These rains, along with previous precipitation has helped to remove short term dryness in much of western and central regions. Due to very poor moisture availability during November, though, most of eastern Tanzania continues to experience 1-2 month dryness. Generally light showers are expected during the period. 5) Rains increased in much of northern Mozambique and western Zimbabwe during the past 7 days, though the season continues to be slow to start in much of eastern Zimbabwe as well as the Tete, southern Zambezia, Manica and Sofala Provinces in Mozambique. November rainfall in these regions ranged from 0-60 percent of normal, and conditions have not improved during the first half of December. High pressure should continue to dominate the weather over the next week and this will further exacerbate dryness in and south of the region. 6) Little has changed in and around Lesotho during the past week with respect to seasonal rainfall deficits. An inactive weather pattern should set in during the first half of next week, though the possibility exists for moderate rains during the second half. 7) Moderate showers were seen in northern parts of eastern South Africa during the last week, though drier than normal conditions were evident elsewhere in the region. The area of eastern South Africa, Swaziland, and southern Mozambique continues to feel the effects of long term hydrological drought during last year, and is now hurting from meager 2003-04 early season rains. While some locations in the region are experiencing near normal conditions (especially Limpopo province in S.A.), elsewhere 2-month precipitation totals are from 15-50 percent of normal. Moderate rains are possible in the region during the second half of next week. Timothy B Love