Africa Weather Hazards Assessment Text Explanation
December 11-17, 2003

1) Former Cyclone Cela (03S) which produced locally heavy rains as it passed over northern Madagascar is now located over the northern Mozambique Channel and is forecast to remain generally stationary during the next few days.  Due to slightly warmer than normal sea surface temperatures, redevelopment may occur if wind fields become favorable for cyclonic conditions.  The system should be monitored closely during the next week.

2) Meteorological forecasts for the previous week grossly underestimated the extent of precipitation that fell in the Horn of Africa.  The majority of rainfall was located south of the Sool Plateau region, though up to 65 mm was seen in the western and southwestern plateau area.  While this has helped to increase moisture and slightly relieve drought conditions in the west, long term dryness continues to exist with the greatest deficits seen to the east.  A repeat of the precipitation event is not likely for the next week.

3) Widespread rains fell over drought affected areas of southern and eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia, and northern Kenya during the past week, with large areas receiving greater than 50 mm and local totals exceeding 150 mm.  This has helped to reduce seasonal precipitation deficits, especially in eastern Ethiopia.  Lighter rains were seen in parts of west central Somalia and northwestern Kenya, where dryness continues.  Forecasts are indicating generally light showers expected during the next period.

4) Seasonal rains in much of central Tanzania, excluding the western border region, are running from 5-50 percent of normal and little precipitation fell over the area during the past week.  This is hurting early season crops in the area, though latest meteorological rainfall forecasts are encouraging for the next week, with daily showers possible.

5) Local thunderstorms throughout much of eastern Tanzania and extreme southern Kenya produced beneficial rains during the past week, and daily rains brought an end to short term dryness in extreme northern parts of Mozambique.  Unfortunately though, rains still have not materialized toward central parts of Tanzania, and seasonal moisture deficits are increasing.  Hit and miss showers are possible during the next week. 

6) Rains during the past week in much of northern Mozambique have moderated early season dryness, though this is not the case further to the west into southern Malawi and along the Zambezi River in central and western Mozambique.  Precipitation deficits since the first of November are between 50-100 mm in the area, or from 0-50 percent of normal.  Agricultural problems associated with this lack of moisture may be lessened due to the fact that monthly average temperatures have been near to slightly below normal.  A frontal system may pass over the area during the next week, bringing 7-day rainfall totals up to 50 mm locally.

7) Little has changed in and around Lesotho during the past week with respect to seasonal rainfall deficits, as between 5-20 mm was reported in the region.  An inactive weather pattern should set in during the next week, and dryness should prevail.

8) Some light showers were evident during the past week over parts of the drought affected region of eastern South Africa, southern Mozambique, and Swaziland, though a frontal system should begin to produce heavier rains as it moves northeastward out of the area during the next few days.  Rains since mid-October have been from 33-66 percent of normal and the area, as long term drought conditions continue to dominate and expand to the north into southern Zimbabwe and central Mozambique.

Timothy Love