WEEKLY WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT   NOVEMBER 13, 2003  DISCUSSION: 

1. The short season rains (Deyr Rains) have failed this year across the Sool Plateau in northern
Somalia, worsening the already severe, multi-year drought. The drought has resulted in degraded
pastures and depletion of water supplies. TC02A may result in significant improvement during the later
half of the period (see area 8).

2. Short season rains have been slow to develop and spotty across eastern and southern Ethiopia, much
of Somalia, and northern Kenya. October was very dry across these lands. Scattered showers began in
some areas during the beginning of November. However, the short season has still been quite dry.
Dryness has been observed across extreme southeastern Sudan and northeastern Uganda as well.
There have been exceptions, however. Isolated heavy thunderstorms soaked parts of north-central
Kenya, and rainfall across extreme southern Somalia and adjacent parts of east-central Kenya have
been above normal. The potential for a substantial increase in moisture exists in northern and central
Somalia as well as eastern Ethiopia due to TC02A. This may come, however, with flooding and strong
winds (see area 8). 

3. Seasonal rains have been lighter than normal and somewhat erratic across parts of the southern
highlands of Ethiopia. This may have a negative impact on agriculture and reduce water supplies. Some
improvement is possible during the period. 

4. October and early November rains have been lighter than normal across the southeastern corner of
Kenya and northeastern Tanzania. Furthermore, rainfall during the April-May season was much below
normal. This has resulted in degraded pastures and has reduced moisture for second season agriculture
across the area. There has been some improvement along the immediate coast due to some recent
moderate-to-heavy rains. Scattered showers are expected during the period, with the greatest chance
of improvement across southeastern Kenya.  The long term moisture situation will require more
substantial rainfall over longer duration to result in significant improvement. 

5. Early season rains have been resulting in a gradual improvement of the long term drought situation in
parts of eastern South Africa, Swaziland and southern Mozambique that resulted from last season's
poor performing rains. Recent rains have slowly begun to recharge groundwater and reservoirs, raise
river levels and boost soil moisture for summer crops. Additional showers during the period should
continue this gradual trend. 

6. Meager precipitation during the cool season in and around the land-locked kingdom of Lesotho
negatively affected winter agriculture, reduced irrigation reserves and has reduced soil moisture for main
season crop planting. Recent rainfall has improved conditions for summer crop planting, particularly in
the east. Additional showers during the period should further improve moisture conditions and ease the
impacts of this past winter's drought. 

7) A strong storm system will produce locally heavy rain and strong winds late in the period. The rain and
wind may cause flooding, landslides and wind damage across northern Morocco and northern Algeria. 

8) TC02A may produce heavy rains and strong winds across central and northern Somalia, as well as
eastern Ethiopia. These rains may result in substantial improvement in the drought situation across the
Sool Plateau. The rains would also benefit pastures and water supplies across the region. However, the
rains may produce flooding across the region. Strong winds may cause property damage, especially near
where the storm comes ashore. Strong winds will likely produce severe dust storms prior to rainfall. At
the time of writing, TC02A was forecast to strike the Somali coast on the 16th. Please see updated 
bulletins for the latest information, as the situation may change.                        

AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt