AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT EXPLANATION
VALID October 23-29, 2003

1) 7-Day rainfall accumulations from October 14-20 reached 150 mm along parts of coastal Nigeria and Cameroon, 
as soils remain saturated and stream levels remain high.  Rainfall totals during the next week may reach 200 mm locally 
as the ITCZ continues to shift southward and focuses thunderstorm convection near the area; thus local flooding remains
a possibility.

2) Weekly rainfall totals in parts of south central Ethiopia topped 100 mm locally during the last period, and the overall 
coverage of precipitation increased from the last week.  Widespread totals exceeding 30 mm were observed, though 
areas to the east and south of the hazard region remain dry.  Meteorological forecast models indicate a chance for 
substantial precipitation in areas of southeastern Ethiopia during the next week, though the intensity and placement of 
these rains remain uncertain.  Given this, the dryness hazard area has only been slightly extended to the south and east, 
though if these rains do not materialize, the region will likely be extended further.

3) The area of the Sool Plateau in northern Somalia received generally no precipitation during the last seven days. Though 
potential for some rainfall continues through the next two weeks, this area has again seen a near failure of seasonal rains. 
In fact, a recent UN finding states that this is the worst drought in living memory for many of the area's residents.  Little 
precipitation is expected during the next week as drought continues in the region.

4) Light rains fell along parts of southern coastal Kenya and northern Tanzania from October 19-20, though dryness held 
for the remainder of last week.  Mombasa, Kenya has seen virtually no rainfall from mid-September onward, though the 
area should normally receive greater than 100 mm for the same period.  The region of dryness extends southward into 
Dar es Salaam as well, where 100% rainfall deficits for the period exist.  Compounded on these poor performing rains 
during the last two months is the fact that March-June 2003's precipitation totals ran from 20-50 percent of normal.  
On a positive note, there is a chance for moderate rainfall during the next week thanks to favorable onshore wind 
patterns and available moisture.

5) The heaviest rains of the season were seen in parts of southern Mozambique during the last week, with widespread 
7-day rainfall totals exceeding 75 mm with locally higher amounts.  The cold frontal system responsible for this 
precipitation has since moved out of the area, though some lingering rainfall continues in parts of central Mozambique.  
These rains have helped to increase moisture throughout the southern Mozambique area, and to a lesser extent eastern 
South Africa, though long-term drought remains in the region.  The next chance for significant rainfall is around 
October 26th as another weather system is forecast to push through the area and possibly affect more of South Africa 
than Mozambique.

6) The area in and surrounding Lesotho continues to feel the effects of poor performing winter rainfall, though 
precipitation has increased during the past few weeks throughout the region.  Last week saw generally light accumulations 
of less than 30 mm and lighter rainfall is forecast through the period.

Timothy B Love