AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT EXPLANATION
VALID September 18-24, 2003

1) Locally heavy rainfall in parts of Benin, Togo, Nigeria, and Cameroon have led to flooding
concerns in the region.  While rainfall during the past week over areas of the Kaduna State in
north central Nigeria has not been quite as heavy compared to previous weeks, heavy
thunderstorms may bring strong rains to the area.  These rains may fall over areas where soils are
already saturated, thus local flooding is possible.  In parts of the Adamawa State in east central
Nigeria, flooding has occurred recently when excess water was released upstream from the Lagdo
Dam.  Heavy rains are again possible throughout the region during the next week.

2) Heavy rains that have fallen over parts of northwest Ethiopia during the last few months have
begun to move southward, coincident with movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. 
Past seven day accumulated precipitation totals in parts of eastern and southeastern Sudan and
southwestern Ethiopia have exceeded 150 mm locally, and additional rains are possible during
the next week.

3) Long term drought continues in parts of north central Somalia due to three years of below
normal rainfall.  Some relief has occurred during the past few weeks, but dryness remains in the
area.  Latest precipitation forecast models indicate a good chance for rainfall during the next
week, and this would match the normal seasonal rainfall pattern for the area.  If this forecast
holds true, very beneficial relief will occur, though if dryness continues, the situation will
deteriorate further due to the normally short rainy season.

4) The heavy rains mentioned in area #2 did help to relieve dryness in areas of southern Ethiopia
that have maintained last season's precipitation deficits through the past months.  Thus, the
western extent of the hazard region from last week's assessment has been cropped, though the
remainder is kept intact.  Spotty showers and thunderstorms have increased moisture locally
though, and additional relief is expected during the next few weeks as the primary axis of
convection shifts southward.

5) Rainfall totals during the past week in areas of western Kenya near Lake Victoria topped 50
mm locally, and local flooding remains a concern in the region due to near bankfull stream
levels.  Rainfall forecasts indicate generally light to moderate totals during the next week, though
any stronger than normal thunderstorms that occur over the area will cause additional problems. 
If rains subside during the next week, the hazard area will probably be removed.

6) Up to 40 mm of rainfall was seen during the past week in drought affected areas of eastern
South Africa, with much higher totals to the south along the coast.  While this has helped to
partially regenerate moisture and provide water to winter wheat grown in the area, long term
drought remains.  Rainfall should normally begin to increase in October throughout the western
half of the hazard region. 

7) Weekly rainfall totals in parts of Liberia, Cote d'Ivoire, and Ghana that have been
unseasonably dry reached 50 mm from September 9-15.  The most improvement from this
precipitation can be seen in central Cote d'Ivoire, with Liberia moisture increasing as well.  The
area of concern should receive from 100-200 mm rainfall during the month of September, though
current totals range from 0-150 mm.  Rainfall has been increasing, however, coincident with the
southward progression of the ITCZ, and further rains are likely through the remainder of the
month.


Timothy B Love