WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT
SEPTEMBER 11-17, 2003 DISCUSSION:

1) Although rainfall during the past month has helped to relieve dryness in much of northern
Senegal and southern Mauritania, conditions remain unfavorable toward extreme northwestern
Senegal. During the past week, rainfall totals locally greater than 50 mm were noted in parts of
southern Mauritania and widespread totals exceeding 100 mm were seen in eastern Senegal. 
Much of this precipitation fell outside the area of concern however, though latest forecasts
indicate a chance for more rainfall during the next week.

2) Saturated soil conditions and heavy rainfall is leading to areas of flooding in parts of eastern
Burkina, northeastern Ghana, northern Togo, northern Benin, and western Nigeria as daily
showers and thunderstorms continue to move over the region.  Flooding seen near the Kaduna
state in north central Nigeria may be increased by additional rains during the upcoming week. 
The past week's local rainfall totals exceeding 200 mm in Ghana were similar to totals seen along
the southern Nigeria / Cameroon border where flooding problems will also occur.

3) Heavy rainfall, primarily on September 3rd, fell over parts of southwestern Eritrea and caused
flooding in the region.  To the south along the Ethiopia border, widespread weekly rainfall totals
exceeding 50 mm were seen, with local totals up to 200 mm.  The latest rainfall forecasts along
with soil moisture model outputs suggest the flooding threat to continue.

4) Little precipitation fell over drought affected areas of northern Somalia during the last week,
though some light showers or thunderstorms are possible through the next 7 days.  Dryness
continues in this area due to poor performing rains during the last season.

5) Erratic and somewhat lighter than normal rainfall continues over parts of southern and
southeastern Ethiopia, although very heavy rains were seen during the past week in areas of
southeastern Sudan.  While these rains have helped to remove dryness from the westward most
part of the hazard area, spotty areas of dryness continue throughout the remainder of the region. 
Latest forecasts predict up to 40 mm of rainfall to occur in the area during the next 3 days, so this
should further help to alleviate dryness.

6) Localized flooding continues near and along the Nzoia river in western Kenya near Lake
Victoria.  Past 7-day rainfall accumulations of greater than 125 mm in the area have kept river
levels at bankfull conditions and additional precipitation is expected during the next week.

7) Up to 30 mm of rain was seen during the past week in drought affected areas of southern
Mozambique and eastern South Africa as a surface cold front pushed through the region.  Similar
rains are possible in the area during the next 7 days, though long term drought conditions will
remain throughout the area.  The past season's rainfall deficits continue to yield problems in the
area as crop and livestock problems are reported.

8) Heavy rainfall during the last 7 days in southern Liberia have decreased dryness in the area,
though seasonal precipitation deficits remain due to a weak past few months.  In Cote d'Ivoire,
rainfall continues to push southward into central areas of the country and dryness decreases. 
Rains are generally expected to continue in the region and moisture should increase accordingly.

Timothy B Love