WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT
SEPTEMBER 4, 2003 DISCUSSION:

1) Rainfall totals across portions of northwestern Senegal and
southwestern Mauritania are somewhat below normal. This may slow the
recovery of pastures negatively impacted by last years drought.
Conditions this year are much better than last year across Senegal and
Mauritania, when searing heat and lack of rain resulted in severe drought.

2) Heavy seasonal rains have resulted in flooding across the highlands
of Eritrea, northwestern Ethiopia and adjacent portions of Sudan during
the end of July into August. Severe flooding struck the Sudanese city of
Kassala, resulting in loss of life and damage. The widespread heavy
rains responsible for this flooding will be on the decline in Eritrea,
western portions of the Tigray region in Ethiopia, and around Kassala in
Sudan. Isolated heavy thunderstorms, however, are still possible in this
region which may cause localized problems. The potential for heavy
rainfall will increase further south as the ITCZ moves equatorward. This
means the potential for heavy rain and flooding exists across western
portions of the Amhara region in Ethiopia, the Benshangul region in
Ethiopia, and adjacent portions of Sudan.

3) Much below normal rainfall three years in a row has resulted in long
term drought across southern Sanaag and northern Sool regions in
Somalia. Long term drought has degraded pastures across the area. Some
relief is possible during mid and late September, when the second rainy
season occurs. More substantial rains typically occur during the
May-June wet season.

4) Seasonal rainfall across the southern portions of the Ethiopian
highlands and adjacent portions of southeastern Sudan has been below
normal and erratic. This may negatively impact local agriculture and
water supplies. Because of the high amount of variability across this
region, some locations may be experiencing good rains while others are
drier than normal. As a result, not all areas included in the shaded
region will be affected. Likewise, it is possible that some locations
near, but not within, the shaded region will be affected by dryness and
erratic seasonal rains.

5) Above normal rains in recent weeks has resulted in some flooding
problems across parts of southwestern Kenya. Flooding has recently been
reported along the River Nzoia. Seasonal showers, some of which may be
locally heavy, are expected across southwestern Kenya. As a result, the
potential for flooding exists across northern Nyanza Province, Western
Province and adjacent portions of Rift Valley Province. Locations along
the Nzoia River run the greatest risk.

6) Rainfall totals for the 2002-03 rainy season were between 40 and 65%
of normal across northeastern South Africa, southern Mozambique, and
much of Swaziland. Seasonal rainfall deficits range from 150 to 400 mm
across the region. This has resulted in a hydrologic drought across the
region, reducing water supplies for wells, reservoirs and watersheds.
Soaking rains are expected across eastern parts of the shaded area
during the weekend, which will result in some improvement. This includes
eastern Northern Province and Mpumalanga in South Africa, Swaziland and
Maputo Province in Mozambique. With the heavy rains, the potential for
isolated flash flooding exists across eastern Northern Province and
Swaziland. Flooding is not expected to be a widespread problem.

7) The mini dry season set in about a month early across southern
Liberia, southern Cote DIvoire and southwestern Ghana. This resulted in
a very dry July and may have stressed reproductive and maturing crops in
the region. Scattered showers have resulted in some improvement across
Liberia and central Cote DIvoire.

AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt