AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT EXPLANATION
VALID August 21-27, 2003

1) Much of the drought affected area of Senegal and southwestern Mauritania received from 30-75 mm
total rainfall during the previous week, and this has helped to ease dryness throughout the region.
Although the previous week's Hazard Assessment region has been cut from the east to reflect areas
where moisture has returned more strongly, dryness does remain in much of northwestern Senegal.
Rains have caused areas of flooding to the east along the Senegal/Mauritania border during the past
two weeks, although this is not shown graphically in this week's assessment.

2) Rainfall has continued to be locally heavy in parts of southeastern Chad, western Sudan, and
northern CAR during the past seven days, and additional precipitation is expected from August
21-27.  Soils remain saturated in the region and local stream levels continue to be much higher
than normal, thus additional rainfall will likely lead to flooding.  Latest regional precipitation
models suggest the potential for 3-day accumulated rainfall totals up to 100 mm for the period
ending August 22.

3) Recent weekly rainfall totals have exceeded 100-150 mm in parts of western Eritrea, northeastern
Sudan, and northwestern Ethiopia and continue to produce flooding near and downstream of the
heavy rainfall events.  The Blue Nile river continues to be near bankfull from Khartoum and
extending eastward, and additional heavy rains are expected sporadically throughout the week.

4) Dryness continues to affect parts of southern Ethiopia and southeastern Sudan due to much
lighter than normal rainfall during the previous season.  The past week's rainfall did help to
improve moisture conditions throughout much of the hazard area though, with the greatest relief
occurring in east central Ethiopia, near and west of Somali Province.  Similar relief is possible
during the next week and very heavy rains are again possible in pasture lands east of the northern
Ethiopia Highlands.


5) August 16th saw very heavy rains inundate parts of northern coastal Somalia with 1-day rainfall
totals exceeding 100 mm locally.  This has helped to remove dryness from parts of Sannag Province
near the town of Erigavo.  Unfortunately, the precipitation did not extend further south and thus
dryness remains.  Some light showers are possible in the area during the next week.

6) Dryness continues in parts of southern Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana, and
northeastern South Africa.  Some light precipitation is possible during the next seven days.

7) Post-frontal freezing conditions are expected in parts of southern South Africa from August
20-23 as overnight low temperatures may reach -10 degrees Celsius.  These cold temperatures are
likely to remain in place until the next cold front pushes through the area over the weekend.

8) Parts of dryness affected areas of northern Cote d'Ivoire have received 7-day rainfall totals
of up to 50 mm locally, and additional relief is possible during the next week.  Spotty showers
and thunderstorms were also noted throughout the region into Liberia, southern Code d'Ivoire,
and southern Ghana.  Seasonal dryness has affected water levels of Lake Volta in Ghana, and
the lower than normal conditions are being shown to reduce hydroelectric power generation.
Neighboring countries are also feeling the effects of this reduced power capacity.

9) Very heavy rainfall occurred once again in parts of southern Senegal, The Gambia, and Guinea-
Bissau during the previous week, as rainfall totaled greater than 200 mm locally and widespread
amounts of 100-150 mm were noted.  Soils are now saturated and local flooding is occurring in
the area.  Latest precipitation forecasts show a possible reprieve during the next week, as
rainfall totals are expected to be less than seen recently.

10) Weekly rainfall totals in western Niger were generally light during the last seven days,
although heavier rains were seen to the south along the Niger River area in northeastern Nigeria.
Flooding does remain a concern in the area although the extent will not be widespread.  A series
of easterly waves are expected to continue moving through the area during the next week and
give rise to the possibility of heavy rains locally.

Timothy B Love