AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT EXPLANATION
VALID August 14-20, 2003

1) Recent 7-day rainfall totals in parts of southeastern Mauritania exceeded 100-150 mm and have
helped to ease dryness in the region.  While pockets of dryness remain, overall improvement in
the area is noted.  Latest ITCZ analyses and regional rainfall forecast models support additional
relief in the area during the next week.  Areas to the west into northwestern and central
Senegal have remained dry for most of the past month and dryness continues in this region.  The
lack of precipitation may be affecting the groundnut basin in Senegal.

2) Recent weekly precipitation totals in southern Chad exceeded 75 mm and conditions remain
favorable for areas of local flooding during the next week.  Latest meteorological forecasts
indicate areas of weekly rainfall greater than 150 from August 14-20 with widespread amounts
exceeding 75 mm.

3) The heavy rainfall which occurred from July 26-30 near and east of Kassala in eastern Sudan
has led to saturated soil conditions and bank-full rivers.  Past 7-day rainfall totals from
50-150 mm in western Eritrea and northwestern Ethiopia are causing water runoff into downstream
areas already inundated by high water.  Additional locally heavy rainfall is forecast during
the next week.

4) Beneficial rainfall has occurred over the central Ethiopian Highlands and adjacent pastures
during the past four weeks, and this has helped to reduce dryness throughout the area.  Farther
to the south, however, rains continue to be lighter than normal, and southwestern Sudan
is experiencing dryness as well.  Latest regional forecast models show greater than 50 mm
rainfall possible in these continued dry areas during the next three days.  If this verifies,
improvement will occur in the region.

5) A failure of rains in parts of northern Somalia has led to drought in the region.  Little
rainfall is expected in the near future as seasonal rainfall totals remain near 0-25% of normal.

6) Seasonal rainfall totals in parts of southern Somalia remain below normal after flood-
producing rains in July fell over the area.  Little rainfall is likely during the next few weeks
as the season wraps up.

7) Weekly rainfall totals of 20-30 mm locally were seen from August 5-11 in parts of eastern
South Africa affected by long-term drought.  Although this has helped winter crops in the region,
dryness continues in parts of southern Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana, and
northeastern South Africa.  Little precipitation is expected during the next seven days.

8) Up to 50 mm rainfall was reported in parts of Cape Town province in South Africa during the
past week and lighter showers were seen throughout the hazard area.  This trend is not expected
to continue during the next week however, as dryness should prevail and winter moisture
deficits remain.

9) The past few weeks has seen a dramatic increase in precipitation over previously dry areas of
western Guinea and Sierra Leone, with recent weekly rainfall totals exceeding 100 mm throughout
the region.  Though seasonal rainfall deficits remain in these countries, the fact that the
area usually receives such high totals lessens the impact of these lighter than normal rains.
Locally heavy thunderstorms are again possible during the next week.  Further to the east, into
Liberia, Code d'Ivoire, and southwestern Guinea, seasonable dry conditions continue.  Although
rains are normally light during this time of year, previous rainfall deficits remain due to
a very dry first rainy season.  Forecast models are indicating a chance for moderate rains
in parts of northern Cote d'Ivoire during the next week, but relief may be local and not
widespread.

10) Parts of The Gambia, southern Senegal, and Guinea-Bissau received locally very heavy rains
during the last week, with 7-day totals exceeding 200 mm in some locations.  Additional rainfall
was seen on August 12th as well, and forecasts show a good chance for more rains during the next
week.  Local periods of flooding may result from the heavier showers and thunderstorms as they
move from east to west through the area.

11) Rainfall has been moderate to heavy over the past two weeks in the area in and surrounding
western Niger, and this has led to local flooding problems in the region.  Local reports of
weekly accumulated precipitation during the past week exceeded 200 mm in some areas and
additional rainfall is possible from August 14-20.  

Timothy B Love