AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT EXPLANATION
VALID August 7-13, 2003

1) Long-term hydrological drought continues throughout much of southern Mauritania and northern
Senegal due to poor performing rains in 2002.  Rainfall has begun to move northward into the
area, and particularly southwestern Mail has seen improved conditions.  Though rainfall was
observed over southern Mauritania during the final week of July, the past week saw little
precipitation in the area.  In Senegal, western and eastern parts have received beneficial
rainfall during the past few weeks, but conditions remain generally dry in the central (eastern
Groundnut Basin).  Substantial rains are not likely during the next week.

2) Recent weekly precipitation totals in southern Chad exceeded 150 mm and totals from the final
ten days of July exceeded 250 mm locally.  This has led to saturated soil conditions and high
river levels in the region, as noted by latest hydrological model outputs.  Latest 3-day high
resolution precipitation forecasts indicate the possibility for accumulations greater than 100 mm
in the area as well.  Continued local stream flooding thus remains a possibility near and
downstream of heavier rainfall events.

3) Very heavy rainfall from July 26-30 resulted in widespread flooding east of Khartoum, Sudan,
on the Blue Nile, and near the town of Kassala.  5-Day rainfall accumulations exceeded 300 mm
locally and resulted in stream flooding in the region.  Latest precipitation forecasts do not
indicate a high chance of rains during the next week in the immediate area, but locally heavy
rains are possible in the western Ethiopian Highlands and western Eritrea.  These rains may
cause additional flooding problems downstream of the area receiving the heaviest rainfall due
to already high river levels.

4) Beneficial rainfall has occurred over the central Ethiopian Highlands and adjacent pastures
during the past two weeks, and this has helped to reduce dryness throughout the area.  Farther
to the south, however, rains continue to be lighter than normal, and southwestern Sudan
is experiencing dryness as well.  July rainfall totals in these areas were up to 250 mm less than
normal or 20-50% of usual accumulations and little rainfall is expected again in the south.
Northern areas may receive additional beneficial rains during the next week though.

5) A failure of rains in parts of northern Somalia has led to drought in the region.  Little
rainfall is expected in the near future as seasonal rainfall totals remain near 0-25% of normal.

6) Little rainfall has fallen in parts of southern Somaila since flooding occurred in July, and
only light precipitation is expected during the next week.  This dryness has affected sorghum
crops in the southern part of the hazard region and is affecting pasture conditions to the north.

7) Dryness continues in parts of southern Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana, and
northeastern South Africa due to spotty areas of poor performing rains during last season. Little
change in area moisture is expected until next season.  Light showers are possible along coastal
Mozambique during the next week as a surface front passes through the area.

8) Dryness continues to exist in parts of western South Africa.  Monthly rainfall totals were
around half of normal for the month of July, though a more favorable weather pattern is evolving
at the moment.  A series of low pressure regions is expected to pass near the area during the
next week and bring a chance for beneficial rains with each system.  Latest precipitation
forecasts yield up to 50 mm during the next week, with the majority falling on August 9th.

9) The past week saw little to no rainfall falling over parts of southern Ghana and Cote
d'Ivoire as seasonal deficits continue to mount over the region. June-July rainfall totals ran
between 20-80 percent of normal, but July deficits were greater, at 5-80% with more substantial
widespread negative departures.  Northern parts of Cote d'Ivoire and eastern areas of Ghana
may receive helpful rains during the next week, with totals near normal (around 10 mm per day)
in the northern hazard area.

10) Easterly waves have brought near normal precipitation to parts of Guinea and Sierra Leone
during the past two weeks, and this trend is generally expected to continue during the next
seven days.  July rainfall totals in the hazard area ran 5-50% of normal, while June-July
totals ran 10-40% of normal throughout the region.  Rainfall should begin to increase in Liberia
within the next few weeks as the ITCZ begins to migrate back southward for the season.

Timothy B Love