AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS TEXT EXPLANATION

VALID JULY 31 - AUGUST 6, 2003

1) A severe drought last season has resulted in poor pasture conditions
and moisture deficits across much of northern Senegal, southern
Mauritania and adjacent portions of Mali. Over much of the southeastern
hazard area, beneficial rains have fallen over the past several weeks,
especially in southern Mauritania and extreme northern Mali.  One
exception is over north-central Senegal, which has been highlighted by
the red hatching.  This hatched-area is predominantly over a pasture
region, and indicates the region where the rainy season is slow to
start.  In general, showers will continue to move throughout the hazard
area, which will help to alleviate some of the long-term deficits.

2) Over the past several weeks, beneficial rains have fallen over the
northern hazard area in Ethiopia.  Overall improvement has been seen
along the north-south polygon extent, which extends from the northern
Ethiopian highlands, southward. This is encouraging considering the slow
start to the rainy season.  Other areas of the polygon in southern
Ethiopia and southeastern Sudan are still well below normal for season.
Forecasts indicate that beneficial rainfall will continue in the
northern portions of the hazard region during the next week.  The
southern area will continue to be watched closely as long-term deficits
will be magnified if seasonal rainfall does not improve soon.

3) A multi-year drought over northern Somalia has affected pasture lands
over the region.  This has especially stressed the Sanag and Sool
regions.  Field reports indicate that herders are moving livestock out
of the regions due to deteriorating land.  Water supplies may also be
affected in and around the region.  According to climatology over the
area, the next opportunity for significant rainfall will be in
September.

4) Areas along the Somalia coast will be watched for short-term
dryness.  Most of this region averages around 20 mm per week, however,
over the past several dekads little rain has fallen.  Crops grown along
the coastal region may be negatively affected.  The rainy season
generally ends around the first to mid-August.

5) Rainfall totals during the 2002-2003 wet season were less than half
of normal across much of Swaziland, northeastern South Africa and the
southern most provinces of Mozambique. This includes significant
portions of the Limpopo River Valley. Precipitation deficits of 150 to
400 mm have raised concerns over water shortages across the region.

6) Short-term rainfall deficits are increasing in western South Africa,
especially in and around the Western Cape.  Reliable station reports
indicated that the rainfall totals are at least 60% of normal throughout
the region.  Winter wheat and water supplies may be affected within the
polygon area.

7) After a hopeful week of beneficial rains, minimal amounts over the
past week may indicate that the rainy season is ending early in central
areas of Cote dM-^RIvoire and Ghana.  The region should still be receiving
100 mm of rain per week in the interior portions of these countries.
Forecasts indicate that dryness will possibly continue throughout the
impending period.

8) Beneficial rains fell in isolated areas of  Liberia, Sierra Leone and
portions of Guinea; however, much of the region is still below normal.
Crops and water supplies within the hazard polygon may still be affected
for weeks to come.  Forecasts indicate that isolated rain showers will
continue during the next week.

Author: Kevin B Laws