AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS TEXT EXPLANATION

VALID JULY 17 - 23, 2003

1) A severe drought last season has resulted in poor pasture conditions and moisture deficits
across much of northern Senegal, southern Mauritania and adjacent portions of Mali. Over much
of the southern hazard area, beneficial rains fell this week with the exception of northern
Senegal.  Lighter amounts of rain fell in the northern portions of the region, however, the rainy
season is set to start in mid- to late July.

2) During the last month, areas in east-central Chad have experienced extreme amounts of rain. 
Totals over the last two weeks have been near 200 mm in isolated locations. Flood prone areas in
and around the city of Abeche and river basins should be monitored for flooding as rains are
forecast to continue during the upcoming week.

3) Over the past week, beneficial rains fell in northern and central areas on the east side of Lake
Tana.  In general, rains over the hazard region have been slow to start.  Forecasts indicate that
there is a potential for more significant rainfall throughout the hazard period. The potential for
significant negative impacts to local agriculture will increase if the dry trend continues for the
next few weeks, this area will be watched closely.  The bold black line indicates an area where
little rainfall fell during the previous Belg season, and where long-cycle crops may be affected.

4) A multi-year drought over northern Somalia has affected pasture lands over the region.  This
has especially stressed the Sanag and Sool regions.  Field reports indicate that herders are moving
livestock out of the regions due to deteriorating land.  Water supplies may also be affected in and
around the region.  According to climatology over the area, the next opportunity for significant
rainfall will be in September.

5) Areas along the Somalia coast will be watched for short-termdryness.  Most of this region
averages around 20 mm per week, however, over the past few dekads little rain has fallen.  Crops
grown along the coastal region may be negatively affected.  Little rainfall is forecast during the
impending period.

6) Since March 1, rainfall totals in east-central Sudan have been less than half of normal. 
Significant rain fell during the preceding hazard period, and rainfall is trending more toward
normal amounts.  The forecast for the impending week suggests that rain showers will remain
in the area, which should help to further erase the short-term deficits.

7) Rainfall totals during the 2002-2003 wet season were less than half of normal across much of
Swaziland, northeastern South Africa and the southern most provinces of Mozambique. This
includes significant portions of the Limpopo River Valley. Precipitation deficits of 150 to
400 mm have raised concerns over water shortages across the region.

8) After an excellent start to the rainy season in Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire, rain showers have
subsided in much of the region.  Over the last two dekads little rain has forced the region into a
flash drought, which comes after a good start to the rainy season that is immediately
followed by a time of short-term dryness.  Minimal rain is forecast during the next period as rain
showers associated with the ITCZ will remain further north than climatology would suggest.

9) Seasonal rainfall amounts in Liberia, Sierra Leone and portions of Guinea are well below
normal.  Crops and water supplies within the hazard region will be monitored.  Forecasts indicate
that little rain will fall during the next week.

Author: Kevin B Laws