AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS TEXT EXPLANATION

VALID JULY 3 - 9, 2003

1) A severe drought last season has resulted in poor pasture conditions and moisture deficits
across much of northern Senegal, southern Mauritania and adjacent portions of Mali.  Over the
past week, significant rain fell over southern portions of the hazard area as the ITCZ migrated
northward.  It was estimated that some areas had nearly 40 mm of total rainfall.  This area will
continue to be monitored as the rainy season typically begins late June and early July.

2) Poor performing belg rains may negatively impact long season crops near the towns of Desee
and Weldiya in northern Ethiopia.  The rainfall and forecast continue to slowly move the more
significant rains from the western highlands in an eastward direction toward the hazard region.
Forecasts indicate that there may be a possibility of a passing shower or two during the current
period.  The more significant rain events are expected with the onset of the Meher season, which
should be within the next week or so.

3) Main season rains have been slow to start around and just east of Lake Tana in the Ethiopian
Highlands. This may have some impact on local agriculture as rain should have fallen during
early June.  Forecasts indicate that rains are slowly moving into the area from west to east.
Areas in and around Lake Tana could see more significant rains start this week.  More substantial
seasonal rains across this region are set to begin within the next week or two.  The potential for
significant negative impacts to local agriculture will increase if the dry trend continues for the
next several weeks, but this is not anticipated at this time.

4) A multi-year drought over northern Somalia has negatively affected pasture lands over the
region.  This has especially stressed the Sanag and Sool regions.  Field reports indicate that
herders are moving livestock out of the regions due to deteriorating land.  Water supplies may
also be affected in and around the region.  According to climatology over the area, the next
opportunity for significant rainfall will be in September.

5) Rainfall totals for the March through May wet season (long rains) were between 20% and 40%
of normal across portions of northeastern Tanzania and adjacent southeastern Kenya. These
rainfall deficits may have a substantial negative impact on local crops dependent on these
rains.  Harvesting in the region should continue through early August. This area is expected to
remain seasonably dry until October with the onset of the next wet season, which is more
significant for local agriculture.

6) Rainfall totals during the 2002-2003 wet season were less than half of normal across much of
Swaziland, northeastern South Africa and the southern most provinces of Mozambique. This
includes significant portions of the Limpopo River Valley. Precipitation deficits of 150 to
400 mm have raised concerns over water shortages across the region.

7) Since March 1, rainfall totals in east-central Sudan have been less than half of normal.
Forecasts during the impending week suggests that rain showers are favorable in and around the
hazard region. This area should be monitored closely over the next several weeks.

Author: Kevin B Laws