AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT EXPLANATION
VALID MAY 22 - MAY 28 2003

1) Hydrological drought continues throughout much of southern Mauritania, northern Senegal,
and parts of southwestern Mali due to very poor rainfall during the 2002 season.  No relief
is expected during the remainder of May, although high daytime temperatures may be slightly
lower than during last week.

2) Although rainfall totals have been less than normal throughout much of the western Belg
region in Ethiopia, the most problematic area is highlited in this week's graphic.  Belg
precipitation totals were generally less than half of normal for the recent season in the area
depicted, and although not shown in this image, long season rains have been slow to start in
much of the western Highlands.  Rainfall should generally be light during the next week,
though parts of southwestern Ethiopia could receive greater than 50 mm for the 7 day period.

3) Rainfall was again generally light during the past week in the area in and around the
Shebelle and Jubba river basins in Somalia and Ethiopia, but locally heavy rainfall in the
Jubba Basin headwaters and further downstream near the Somali coast did keep water levels
high.  Although current rainfall forecasts indicate light rains in the region for the first
part of next week, medium range forecasts show locally heavy precipitation falling near the
Ethiopia/Kenya/Somalia border from May 25th onward.  If this occurs, additional river
flooding will result, mainly in the Jubba basin.

4) Latest ETA and GFS precipitation forecast model outputs indicate a chance for heavy rainfall
along the Kenya and northern Tanzania coasts during the next week.  The ETA is currently
indicating a chance for 2 day rainfall totals during May 22-23 exceeding 125 mm in the area,
and longer range models show continued convection in the region during the remainder of the
week.  Thus, localized flooding is a concern throughout the period.

5) Little change; see previous assessments for details.  Dryness continues in parts of
southern Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana, and northeastern South Africa
due to spotty areas of poor performing rains during last season. Little change in area
moisture is expected until next season.

6) Conditions remained dry in much of eastern Tanzania and Kenya during the past week,
although locally heavy rains did fall in parts of southern Tanzania on May 14.  As the
season is ending in most of southeastern Tanzania, any dryness that occurs in the near future
will be likely beneficial to agriculture harvesting activities.  Related to the heavy rains
possible in coastal regions of these countries, locally heavy rain may also fall in parts
of southern Kenya during the next week.

7) Flooding concerns remain in parts of western Kenya, as weekly rainfall totals exceeded
100 mm locally during the previous 7 day period.  Additional rains are likely to reach
similar totals during the final full week of May, and soils should remain saturated, though
the extent of flooding may decrease somewhat due to less widespread heavy rainfall.  Tana
River levels should be lowering toward normal as headwater areas experience little rainfall.
The heavy rains and associated localized flooding in areas northeast of Lake Victoria began
to occur nearly 60 days ago, and thus increased Malaria occurrence is possible in the region.
Though rainfall lately has been slightly less than during the past few weeks, increased
areas of standing water are undoubtedly spawning abnormal mosquito populations and thus the
area should be monitored for signs of increased Malaria.

8) Rainfall from last week exceeded 50 mm locally in parts of eastern Guinea, as dryness
continues to decrease in and around the area.  Light to moderate showers are expected during
the next 7 days as regional hydrological deficits diminish.

Timothy B Love