AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT EXPLANATION VALID MAY 8 - MAY 14 2003 1) Hydrological drought, affecting much of southern Mauritania, southwestern Mali, and northern Senegal continues through the current dry season, with no relief expected until normally late June. Although temperatures were higher than normal in the region during the previous week, the current forecast week should see slightly cooler conditions comparatively. 2) Parts of the northern Ethiopian Highlands are seeing a slow start to their long season rains, with little precipitation recorded last week and a continuing trend for this week. While this is not depicted in the hazard region, the brown shading represents a more problematic Belg season area. In many locations within this region, seasonal rainfall has been around half of normal, with lesser and greater precipitation deficits scattered throughout. The fact that rains have substantially slowed during the past week is not encouraging for this area, and seven day forecasts also show a lack of rainfall throughout the area. 3) Heavy rains which occurred during the second half of April in southern Somalia have slowed dramatically since the first of May. This is helping to eliminate areas of flooding along the middle to upper Shebelle and Jubba rivers. Closer to the coast, however, saturated soil conditions and river levels near full capacity may lead to flooding given any moderate precipitation events. Current rainfall forecasts depict generally light daily amounts, regionally less than 20 mm, through the next seven days. 4) As of May 8 06Z, Cyclone 28S (Manou) was located just off the eastern coast of Madagascar, with maximum sustained winds at 65 knots, gusting to 75. The cyclone is moving slowly to the west and intensity is nearly constant with time. Satellite imagery is showing ongoing interaction with the coast already as the system makes landfall. As this system is moving very slowly, the possibility for very heavy local rains and associated flooding remains. Currently, the cyclone is not forecast to pass through to the Mozambique Channel, but should be monitored nonetheless. 5) Continued moderate to heavy rainfall throughout much of northwestern Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi has helped alleviate seasonal precipitation deficits, though some local areas of dryness remain. Further to the west, in much of eastern Tanzania and Kenya, seasonal rainfall totals have been much less than normal, and this trend continues into May. The yellow shaded region along the Kenyan coast represents areas that are experiencing a slow start to their rainy season. In Mombasa for example, rainfall deficits since April 1 are around 75mm, or roughly half of normal. Little rainfall is again forecast for much of next week. 6) A potent low pressure system is poised to move across southern South Africa during the latter part of the week. Associated with this storm system may be thunderstorms producing locally heavy rainfall and strong winds, as well as locally heavy snowfall in higher elevations. 7) Little change; see previous assessments for details. Dryness continues in parts of southern Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana, and northeastern South Africa due to spotty areas of poor performing rains during last season. Little change in area moisture is expected until next season. 8) Locally heavy rainfall continues throughout much of western, southwestern, and southern Kenya as flooding concerns remain. Weekly rainfall totals up to and exceeding 150 mm from April 29-May 5 combined with previously high precipitation amounts has led to saturated soil conditions, bank full reservoirs, and flood level streamflows, and current meteorological forecast models are indicating continued rains during the next week. While much of the flooding is occurring in these areas, rivers such as the Tana in southeastern Kenya are feeling the effect of heavy rainfall in their headwater areas as flooding occurs downstream. 9) Rainfall from last week, exceeding 75 mm locally, has helped to ease dryness in parts of Guinea and is replenishing moisture in the area. Although hydrologically generated power in Guinea and downstream river activities such as agricultural irrigation and fishery operations continue to feel the effects of low reservoir and river levels, seasonal rains are progressing northward close to normal for the year. Additional weekly rainfall totals exceeding 50 mm are possible during the current period. Timothy B Love