AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT EXPLANATION
VALID MAY 1 - MAY 7 2003

1) Hydrological drought continues to affect much of southern Mauritania, northern Senegal,
and parts of southwestern Mali due to failure of 2002 seasonal rainfall throughout the area.
Although little change can be expected in moisture conditions until rains normally begin in
late June, excessive heat has been occurring during the past week and is forecast to continue
through at least May 4.  Daytime high temperatures may reach 45 degrees C and heat indices
may top 60 degrees C (~140 F).

2) Although Belg-season rainfall in parts of northern Ethiopia has been less than normal,
generally rains have been near to above normal in the area.  This has helped to increase
moisture in the region and avert another season of failing rains for the most part.  Most
noticeably though, a small region near and east of Weldiya (brown shading on map) has seen
much less rainfall compared to normal for the Belg season so far, and the climatological
season is soon to end in that area.  Further west, rains have been slow to start for the
long season rains that normally begin in April, but the concern is not as high due to the
normal length of the season.  Rainfall forecasts for the next week indicate generally light
rains throughout the hazard areas, though heavier rains will most likely fall over the
Highlands.

3) Heavy rainfall that occurred on April 15 throughout southern Somalia and locally heavy
precipitation since has led to high water levels mainly for the Shebelle and Jubba rivers.
Daily rainfall exceeding 100 mm locally during the past week has led to flooding, mostly
downstream, in both river basins.  High resolution precipitation forecasts once again show
a chance for locally heavy daily rainfall exceeding 50 mm in the saturated basin areas
during the extent of the 3 day forecast period.  Given current large scale atmospheric
conditions, this trend may continue throughout the remainder of the week as well.

4) Since April 15, when precipitation increased in southern Somalia, rains also began to
fall heavily in much of southwestern Kenya.  For the past two weeks, daily rainfall totals
exceeding 75 mm locally have been common, and local flooding has been the effect of this
continued, heavier than normal rainfall.  Modeled soil water products have shown this increase
in ground moisture, and saturated conditions are currently evident in the hazard region.
Rainfall forecast models are indicating heavy rains during the next week throughout the area,
and if these forecasts hold true, additional flooding will result and become more widespread.

5) Seasonal rainfall has been lighter than normal throughout parts of Tanzania, southern Kenya,
southern Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi for the past two+ months.  Although dryness in central
Tanzania corresponds to the normal end of seasonal rainfall, southern Kenya and eastern
Tanzania continues to receive a lack of precipitation.  Parts of northern and western Tanzania,
however, along with much of Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi have received good rainfall during the
past two weeks.  7-day forecasts indicate little relief for eastern Kenya and eastern Tanzania,
but moderate to heavy rains possible over areas further west.

6) Dryness continues in parts of southern Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana, and
northeastern South Africa due to spotty areas of poor performing rains during last season.
Little change in area moisture is expected until next season's monsoon arrives.

7) Rainfall totals for the week ending April 28 exceeded 50 mm in southern Guinea, and
although moisture generally decreased further north, a few thunderstorms produced locally
moderate rainfall.  This recent precipitation is seen have increased soil moisture in southern
regions, and rains have been near normal for the month throughout the area.  Dry conditions
do continue in much of central Guinea, and this is negatively affecting hydrologically
generated power in Guinea, as well as irrigated off-season agriculture near downstream rivers
and fishing yields throughout the region due to low river levels.

Author: Tim Love