WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT
APRIL 10 - 16, 2003 DISCUSSION:

1)  Long-term dryness from the last 2 years continues across southern
Mauritania resulting in poor pasture conditions and low water levels.
Reports indicate that similar conditions exist in northern Senegal.
Farmers are struggling as cattle are being moved southward towards The
Gambia.  The seasonal rains should start around the first of July and
last through October.  Current climate forecasts indicate that the
region should receive near-normal rainfall during the upcoming wet
season.

2)  Dryness throughout recent years has resulted in poor pasture
conditions and low water supplies across north-central Ethiopia, and
adjacent portions of Eritrea and Djibouti.  The widespread seasonal
rainfall that began last month has diminished to more isolated rain
events over the past week.  However, the drought hazard has been
optimistically scaled back in the east and south because of the earlier
rains.  From a long-term climalogical perspective, below normal
conditions continue in portions of southern Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern
and central Ethiopia, Somalia, and northern Kenya.

3)  Below normal rainfall totals in Guinea have resulted in low
reservoir levels, which aid in the generation of hydro-electric power.
Several rain events were reported along the southern border and more
improvement is expected during the middle to end of this month.

4)  Numerical predictions from last week verified as northern Tanzania
and most of Kenya received very little rainfall during the period.
However, some isolated regions did receive heavier amounts. All
forecasts indicate that below normal rains will continue for the
highlighted area this week.  The hazard area has been expanded further
northward into Kenya and to other surrounding areas that include Burundi
and Rwanda.

5)  Poor seasonal rains throughout portions of Botswana, South Africa,
Mozambique, and Zimbabwe have resulted in lower than normal crop yields
for much of the highlighted region.  Rain-free days over the next month
should actually help farmers as they begin to harvest the surviving
crops.  The supplemental area highlighted by the orange cross-hairs
should be monitored for hydrological deficits that will affect drinking
water and irrigation in the upcoming secondary growing season.


Author: Kevin B Laws