WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT
              APRIL 3 - 9, 2003 DISCUSSION:

1)  Long-term dryness continues across southern Mauritania resulting in
poor pasture conditions and low water levels.  New reports this week
indicate that similar conditions exist in northern Senegal.  Farmers are
struggling as cattle are being moved southward towards The Gambia.  The
seasonal rains should start around the first of July.

2)  Dryness throughout recent years has resulted in poor pasture
conditions and low water supplies across north-central Ethiopia, and
adjacent portions of Eritrea and Djibouti.  However, seasonal rainfall
has started across central Ethiopia and in more isolated events across
the eastern pasture lands.  The drought hazard has been scaled back in
the east and south, but below normal conditions continue to exist in
portions of southern Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern and central Ethiopia,
Somalia, and northern Kenya.

3)  Below normal rainfall totals in Guinea have resulted in low
reservoir levels, which aid in the generation of hydro-electric power.
Improvement is expected during the middle to end of this month.

4)  Saturated conditions along the boarder of Mozambique and Tanzania
and the eastern coast of Madagascar could lead to isolated areas of
flooding as heavy rains are forecast to continue over the next several
days.  Flood prone areas should be monitored closely as convective
showers could bring weekly totals greater than 100 mm.

5)  Poor rains throughout portions of Botswana, South Africa,
Mozambique, and Zimbabwe has resulted in lower than normal crop yields
for much of the highlighted region.  Rain-free days over the next month
should actually help farmers as they begin to harvest the surviving
crops.  A hydrological assessment will be performed for the upcoming dry
season as winter wheat will need irrigation and for the availability of
drinking water.

6)  Significant rainfall has fallen over Tanzania and southern Kenya,
which should help alleviate some of the short term dry conditions.
However, the area highlighted should continue to be monitored closely as
the most recent forecast rains have not verified.  Numerical models also
indicate that the rains for the upcoming week will be below normal.

Author: Kevin B Laws