WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT
              MARCH 27 - APRIL 2, 2003 DISCUSSION:

1)   A severe drought last season has resulted in poor pasture conditions and moisture deficits across
much of southern Mauritania. Significant rains are not expected until late June/early July with the onset
of the 2003 rainy season. 

2)   Satellite rainfall estimates indicate below normal wet season rains fell across Guinea in 2002, which
has resulted in lower than normal reservoir levels. Although there are no reports of drinking water
shortages, the low reservoirs are causing problems for hydro electric power generation, which normally
provides half of the country's electricity. This could negatively impact the highlighted hazard area and
may have a ripple effect on the surrounding region. Some light rain has fallen across southern parts of the
region. Major improvement is not expected until the 2003 rainy season is well underway.  

3)   Dryness in recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water supplies across
Ethiopia's Afar region, adjacent portions of the Tigray, Amhara and Oromiya regions, as well as parts of
Eritrea and Djibouti. Occasional showers have resulted in some short term improvement across the area.
Additional showers are possible during the period, mainly in southern parts of the area. 

4)   The long season rains have been slow to develop across far northern Tanzania and southwestern
Kenya. Showers and thunderstorms developed across the region on the 22nd and 23rd. Conditions are
favorable for additional rainfall during the period, indicating that the long season rains may have begun. 

5)   No significant rainfall has occurred across much of interior Tanzania from mid February through
about March 10 resulting in dryness. Numerous showers and thunderstorms last week have resulted in
improvement across the region. Despite the recent rains, moisture deficits still exist across much of
interior Tanzania and adjacent portions of Rwanda and Burundi. Additional rainfall throughout the
period is expected to result in further improvement. 

6)   Rainfall totals so far this season are only 40 to 70 percent of normal across western Zimbabwe,
adjacent parts of far southern Zambia, extreme eastern Botswana, southern most Mozambique and
northeastern South Africa.  Low soil moisture levels are negatively impacting crop yields in the eastern
Maize Triangle. Recent rainfall has provided some relief to western Zimbabwe and southern
Mozambique. Across southeastern Zimbabwe and parts of Gaza and Inhambane provinces in
Mozambique, Tropical Cyclone Japhet produced enough rainfall to significantly reduce moisture deficits.
However, the past poor performance of the wet season rains has had a negative impact on local
agriculture. Northern and eastern parts of the area may receive some additional rainfall early in the
period. Most areas, however, are expected to remain dry throughout the period. Significant rainfall
potential across the region is expected to decrease as April progresses and the dry season begins.
Seasonal dryness typically sets in across this area by early to mid April. 

7) A stalled cold front is expected to interact with tropical moisture from the Mozambique Channel to
produce locally heavy rains across portions of southeastern Africa and northwestern Madagascar. The
potential exists for river flooding as well as flash flooding across the region throughout the period. 


AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt