WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT   
                   MARCH 18, 2003  DISCUSSION: 

1) Lack of significant rains throughout western Morocco from the beginning of 2003 through early
March have resulted in precipitation deficits of about 80 mm. Recent rains, however, have helped to
reduce these deficits. Additional rains are expected during the period which will further reduce moisture
deficits and benefit winter crops. 
     
2)   A severe drought last season has resulted in poor pasture conditions and moisture deficits across
much of southern Mauritania. Significant rains are not expected until late June/early July with the onset
of the 2003 rainy season. 

3)   Satellite rainfall estimates indicate below normal wet season rains fell across Guinea in 2002, which
has resulted in lower than normal reservoir levels. Although there are no reports of drinking water
shortages, the low reservoirs are causing problems for hydro electric power generation, which normally
provides half of the country's electricity. This could negatively impact the highlighted hazard area and
may have a ripple effect on the surrounding region. Some light rain has fallen across the region. Major
improvement is not expected until April at the earliest with the onset of the 2003 rainy season.  

4)   Dryness in recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water supplies across
Ethiopia's Afar region, adjacent portions of the Tigray, Amhara and Oromiya regions, as well as parts of
Eritrea and Djibouti. Occasional showers are expected to produce 10 to 30 mm of rainfall during the
period. This would benefit pastures and increase water supplies. More substantial and continuous rains
are needed to reduce long term deficits created by multi-year drought. 

5)   The long season rains have been slow to develop across far northern Tanzania and southwestern
Kenya. Rains typically start in this area around the beginning of March. Only scattered light showers are
expected during the period. 

6)   No significant rainfall has occurred across much of Tanzania and parts extreme northern
Mozambique from mid February through about March 10 resulting in short term dryness. Occasional
showers last period eased dryness somewhat across interior Tanzania. The best relief occurred across far
southwestern Tanzania, northern Mozambique and portions of east central Tanzania.  The best chance of
rain during the period will be in the southern areas. Further north, little if any rainfall is anticipated. 

7)   Rainfall totals so far this season are only 40 to 70 percent of normal across western Zimbabwe,
extreme eastern Botswana, southern most Mozambique and northeastern South Africa.  Low soil
moisture levels are negatively impacting crop yields in the eastern Maize Triangle. Only scattered
showers are expected across the region during the period. Significant, beneficial rainfall is expected
across  the southern and western parts of the Maize Triangle, outside of the hazard area. 

8)   The potential for heavy rains throughout the period will pose a flood risk across coastal areas of
eastern Madagascar. A storm system is expected to produce locally heavy rains and possible flooding
across Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces of South Africa on the 20th and 21st. The potential
exists for additional heavy rains towards the end of the period. 

9)   Locally heavy rains and high antecedent moisture conditions across southern Malawi, northern
Mozambique and northwestern Zambia  may raise local rivers above flood stage and result in some
flooding problems. Flooding is also possible along the main stem of the lower Zambezi.
  
AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt