1)   Drier than normal conditions during January and February has
reduced moisture for winter grains across parts of western Morocco.
Season to date precipitation across this region is about 50 percent of
normal. A weak storm system may produce some light showers during the
weekend. More substantial rain is possible by the end of the period.

2)   A severe drought last season has resulted in poor pasture
conditions and moisture deficits across much of southern Mauritania.
Significant rains are not expected until late June/early July with the
onset of the next rainy season.

3)   Satellite rainfall estimates indicate below normal wet season rains
fell across Guinea in 2002, which has resulted in lower than normal
reservoir levels. Although there are no reports of drinking water
shortages, the low reservoirs are causing problems for hydro electric
power generation, which normally provides half of the country’s
electricity. This could negatively impact the highlighted hazard area
and may have a ripple effect on the surrounding region. Improvement is
not expected until April at the earliest. April marks the typical start
of the rainy season in Guinea.

4)   Dryness in recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and
low water supplies across Ethiopia’s Afar region, adjacent portions of
the Tigray, Amhara and Oromiya regions, as well as parts of Eritrea and
Djibouti. Little if any rainfall is expected during the period.

5)   Little, if any rainfall was observed during the last half of
February across much of Tanzania. No rain fell across eastern Tanzania,
southern Kenya or  far northern Mozambique during the first ten days of
March, with only scattered light showers across western Tanzania. The
resultant short term dryness was stressing crops in the area. The
potential exists for occasional showers across the southern and western
portions of the hazard area. Rain chances diminish further north and
east.

6)   The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Japhet dropped very heavy amounts
of rain across much of central Mozambique and eastern Zimbabwe between
March 4th and 8th.  High water and flooding created problems in several
river basins.  The Save River rose by 4 meters from the 8th to the 9th
of March, exceeding flood alert stage by 0.75 m.  Extensive inundation
was reported in Machanga, at the mouth of the Save.  North of the Save,
the Gorongosa, Mware, and Repembe Rivers overflowed their banks to cut
National Highway 1, creating serious logistical problems.  A 3 kilometer
gap has been created in one location.  A 4.5 m flood wave passed through
the lower Limpopo as a result of heavy rains upstream, mainly in
Zimbabwe.  No damage was reported.  Disaster managers report that the
human impacts of Japhet were greatest in the provinces of Inhambane,
Sofala (Machanga, Chibabava, and Buzi districts), and Manica (Machave,
Mossurize, and Sussundenga districts).  An estimated 73,000 people were
affected in Inhambane, of whom 23,000 were in the Vilankulo area.
Sixteen deaths were reported, and there are still people unaccounted
for.  Relief agencies are operating to help displaced people, including
provision of food aid.  Crops in Inhambane, Gaza, and Maputo provinces
were judged to be a total loss due to drought before Japhet’s arrival.
Crops in Manica province suffered less drought impact and are now in the
beginning harvest period, but with delays due to moisture from Japhet.
Increased standing water provides enhanced habitat for mosquitoes,
elevating risk of malaria transmission.  However, conditions are
expected to be dry during the coming period, and  standing water  and
rivers should subside.

7)   Rainfall totals so far this rainy season are only 40 to 70 percent
of normal across western Zimbabwe, extreme eastern Botswana and
northeastern South Africa.  Low soil moisture levels are negatively
impacting crop yields in the eastern maize Triangle. The best chance for
rain during the period will be in the far northern and southern portions
of the hazard area where showers are expected. Otherwise, most of the
region will remain dry.

8)   Locally heavy rains and high antecedent moisture conditions across
parts of  Zambia, Malawi, northern Mozambique and along the east coast
of Madagascar may raise local rivers above flood stage and result in
some flooding problems. Widespread flooding is not expected.

Chester V Schmitt