WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT
              FEBRUARY 13-19, 2003 DISCUSSION:

1)    Heavy rain over the past several weeks over central and southern Angola has led to saturated soils
and swollen rivers.  More rain is forecasted during this period, so prone areas along river basins in the
southeastern portions of the country should be monitored for localized  flooding.

2)   Portions of southern Africa have remained dry over the past month, and little rain is forecast in the
coming period.  Several reports indicate that much of the region is well below normal with isolated
exceptions.  The area highlighted should continue to be monitored closely for the potential for crop
failure due to extremely dry conditions.  The region of greatest concern is southern Mozambique and
Zimbabwe.  Eastern portions of the maize triangle and Swaziland should also be monitored for drier than
normal conditions and above normal temperatures.

3)   Saturated conditions, which continue in southern Malawi, northern Mozambique and Madagascar could lead
to isolated areas of  flooding as heavy rains are forecast to continue over the next week.  Flood prone
areas should be monitored closely as convective showers could bring weekly totals of 100-200 mm of rain.

4)   Dryness throughout recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water supplies across
central Ethiopia, and adjacent portions of Eritrea and Djibouti. Rainfall is not forecast over the region
within the next week.

5)   Below normal rainfall totals in Guinea has resulted in low reservoir levels, which aid in the
generation of hydro-electric power.  Improvement is expected around April or the start of the next rainy
season in the region.

6)   Hydrological dryness continues across much of southern Mauritania resulting in poor pasture
conditions. Significant rains are not expected until the next growing season, which generally begins in
July.

7)   Areas of western Morocco have received very little rainfall over the past 30 days.  This short-term
dryness could negatively affect crops grown in the region.  No significant rainfall is forecast during the
impending period.

Author: Kevin B Laws