WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT JANUARY 30, 2003 DISCUSSION: 1) Tropical cyclone Fari should make land fall during the beginning of hazard period. Heavy rains will persist throughout central and south-central Madagascar. This is a potentially dangerous situation because of preexisting saturated conditions in this region. Also, as Fari moves westward into the Mozambique Channel re-development could occur. 2) Local rains in northern Tunisia and extreme areas in northern Algeria continue to keep the soils saturated. More rain and high winds are expected over the next week as another mid- latitude system dips southward into the region. Flood prone areas should continue to be monitored. 3) Hydrological dryness continues across much of southern Mauritania resulting in poor pasture conditions. Significant rains are not expected until the next growing season, which generally begins in July. 4) Dryness throughout recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water supplies across central Ethiopia, and adjacent portions of Eritrea and Djibouti. Isolated rain showers are forecast over some areas in Ethiopia within the next week. 5) Below normal rainfall totals in Guinea have resulted in low reservoir levels, which aid in the generation of hydro-electric power. Improvement is expected around April or the start of the next rainy season in the region. 6) Portions of southern Africa received beneficial rain over the past few days. This was mostly over eastern Botswana, south-central Mozambique, and portions of Zimbabwe. Part of this region is still well below normal for the month. The area highlighted should continue to be monitored closely for the potential for crop failure due to extreme dry conditions; however, significant rainfall could occur later in the week as a slow-moving trough approaches. The region highlighted in yellow is of greatest concern for crop failure, which includes extreme southern Mozambique and portions of Zimbabwe. 7) Saturated conditions continue in southern Malawi, north and central Mozambique, and the northern two-thirds of Madagascar, which could lead to isolated areas of flooding as more rain continues throughout the upcoming week. Flood prone areas should be monitored closely through the hazard period. Author: Kevin B Laws