WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT                             

              JANUARY 9, 2003 DISCUSSION: 

1)   Moisture deficits continue across much of southern Mauritania, which has resulted in poor pasture conditions. Significant rains are not expected until the next growing season. 

2)   Dryness throughout recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water supplies across central Ethiopia, and adjacent portions of Eritrea and Djibouti. Isolated showers in the southwestern portions of the area may result in limited improvement. 

3)   Below normal rainfall totals in Guinea has resulted in low reservoir levels, which aid in the generation of hydro-electric power.  Improvement is not expected until April or the start of the next rainy season in the region. 

4)   Persistent dryness over southern Mozambique and northeastern South Africa continue to threaten the maize crop as it enters a critical growing period.  This area has slowly been expanding westward and now covers much of central and southern Zimbabwe and into extreme eastern portions of Botswana.  Also, a new area across southern Zambia should be included as December totals are around 150 mm below normal, which is compounded by a late start to the rainy season.  Most of these areas should have some relief as widespread showers move into the area by 10/01 and 11/01 bringing significant rainfall totals.  Local areas could see as much as  300 mm over the next week.  

5)   Saturated conditions in southern Malawi, north-central Mozambique, and the Lake Victoria basin could lead to isolated areas of  flooding as rains continue over the next week.  Flood prone areas should be monitored closely as some convective showers could bring over 200 mm of rain over the next seven days.
 
Author: Kevin B Laws