WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
                                
NOVEMBER 28, 2002 DISCUSSION:

1) Meteorological forecast models are indicating a chance for heavy rains from November 28-30
throughout parts of northeastern Mozambique, eastern Tanzania, and southern Kenya, bringing
the possibility of localized flooding during the period.  Locally heavy rains fell in parts
of northern Mozambique and southern Kenya last week, and wind patterns remain favorable for
precipitation in the region.

2) Rainfall in parts of northern Sofala and southern Zambezia provinces in central Mozambique
has been less than normal throughout November, and agricultural concerns loom.  Precipitation
totals since November 1 have been generally less than 25 mm in the area, or up to 60 mm less
that climatologically normal for the period.  Although this is not yet a major problem area,
maize normally planted in November may be adversely affected by these dry conditions and the
region should be monitored for continued lack of rainfall.

3) The forecast cold front from last week's assessment did produce locally moderate rainfall
in the Maize Triangle region in South Africa since Thursday, though accumulated totals were
mostly less than 50 mm.  Conditions should be drier than normal during the next week, although
a weather system may bring rainfall totals up to 30 mm to the region from November 29 to
December 1.  Southern Mozambique rainfall is more critical to crop development at the moment.

4) Water deficits continue to exist over much of southern Mauritania due to the near failure
of seasonal rains throughout the area.  No rainfall is expected during the next few months, and
as such, the hydrological situation is not expected to improve until the next season.

5) November 23-25 saw heavy rainfall lash parts of northern Morocco and northeastern Algeria,
as greater than 100 mm fell locally during the 3 day period.  The rainfall during the past few
weeks has undoubtedly saturated soils throughout the area, and local flooding remains a
concern.  The heaviest rains during the next week are expected to fall from December 1-3
across northern Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia.

6) Severe hydrological drought continues regionally throughout parts of central and northern
Ethiopia due to late-starting and sporadic rainfall during the previous seasons.  Rainfall
was lighter than normal toward southwestern Ethiopia as well, though conditions are not as
severe as further northeast.


Author: Timothy Love