WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT NOVEMBER 21, 2002 DISCUSSION: 1) As of 0300Z on November 20, Tropical Cyclone 03S (Boura) was located appriximately 340 miles north-northeast of Mauritius, with maximum sustained winds of 77 knots and movement to the west at around 11 knots. The official forecast takes Boura to the west during the next 72 hours, then turns it slowly to the northwest around a high pressure region forming to the south. While this storm has been changing intensity during the past 24 hours, the potential exists for the cyclone to impact northern Madagascar around November 23. This storm system could produce very heavy rains and strong winds over any land mass which it passes. 2) Rainfall throughout much of the Maize Triangle region in South Africa was heavier than normal during much of October 2002, but November rains have been light to nonexistant in the area. Any crops planted during late October would be adversely affected by the drynes that has prevailed for the past three weeks. On a positive note, meteorological forecast models are predicting a cold front to partially stall over the region during the next few days and produce moderate rainfall amounts up to 75 mm for the seven day period. A study has shown that heavier than normal rainfall during October in the region accompanied by El Nino conditions may lead to precipitation totals much less than normal from January to March. This region will continue to be monitored for any changing climatic patterns. 3) Moisture deficits continue to exist over much of southern Mauritania due to the near failure of seasonal rains throughout the area. No rainfall is expected during the next few months, and as such, the hydrological situation is not expected to improve until the next season. 4) Heavy precipitation fell over much of northern Morocco during the past week and has lead to locally saturated soils and high river levels. Additional rains fell from November 19-20 throughout the region, and additional rainfall is expected around the 24-26th as a storm system is forecast to move through the area. Due to the respectively heavy rains that have fallen during the past week, the potential exists for local flooding and mudslides to accompany any heavy rain that falls during the period. 5) Severe hydrological drought continues regionally throughout parts of central and northern Ethiopia due to late-starting and sporadic rainfall during the previous seasons. Rainfall was lighter than normal toward southwestern Ethiopia as well, though conditions are not as severe as further northeast. Author: Timothy Love