WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
                                
NOVEMBER 14, 2002 DISCUSSION:

1) An organized convective system is currently located to the northeast of Madagascar and is
forecast to move west-southwestward during the next week.  This storm has a strong potential
to affect northern Madagascar, where locally heavy rains could be produced.  Forecast models
are not yet decided upon whether the storm will continue moving to the west, impacting Tanzania
or Mozambique, or begin moving to the south, skirting the eastern Madagascar coast.  Currently,
the later forecast is more likely, but nothing can be ruled out.

2) A low pressure system will produce locally heavy rainfall, possibly exceeding 50 mm, over
parts of northern Morocco and northwestern Algeria during November 14-16.  Strong winds may
accompany the heavier squalls, and local small-scale flooding may occur.  Toward the end of the
week around November 19, another system may affect the area and bring locally heavy rains to
northwestern Morocco.

3) As shown from adequate river and reservoir levels in the upper Senegal Basin and favorable
irrigation for recently resown crops, hydrological dryness has eased throughout much of Senegal.
These moderate conditions are due to semi-sustained rainfall that occurred throughout parts of
Senegal in August.  However; rains were not as favorable throughout southern agricultural areas
of Mauritania.  Hydrological drought remains in this area and will not be relaxed until rains
begin during next year's monsoon season.

4) Southern coastal areas of Cote d'Ivoire have received beneficial rainfall during the past
few weeks and additional precipitation is expected during the next seven days.  Soil moisture
indices also show that the region's hydrological conditions are improving, but improvement
further north has been slower to occur.  Here, climatological dryness has set in, and little
additional rainfall is forecast during the next weeks.  Major hydrological problems are not
expected to continue throughout the remainder of the year.

5) Severe hydrological drought continues regionally throughout parts of central and northern
Ethiopia due to late-starting and sporadic rainfall during the previous seasons.  Rainfall
was lighter than normal toward southwestern Ethiopia as well, though conditions are not as
severe as further northeast.


Author: Timothy Love