WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
                                
NOVEMBER 7, 2002 DISCUSSION:

1) As of November 7 0600 GMT, cyclone 02S was located approximately 595 miles east-
northeast of Madagascar in the Indian Ocean.  Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots with
gusts to 45 knots, and the system was moving southwestward at 4 knots.  Current forecasts
move the cyclone to the west-southwest during the next 48 hours and intensify the storm
to 35 knot sustained winds.  The system has the potential to impact (most likely northern)
Madagascar within the next few days, and could reach mainland Africa soon after, though
nothing is yet certain.

2) The drought affected area of Senegal, southern Mauritania, and west-northwest Mali
received little to no rainfall during the past week, and conditions remain generally
similar to the previous assessment.  

3) Precipitation helped to ease dryness in parts of extreme eastern Cote d'Ivoire during
the past week, as rainfall totals exceeding 30 mm fell in the region.  While lighter
rains, generally less than 15 mm, fell in parts of southwestern Cote d'Ivoire and south-
eastern Liberia, dryness continues throughout the area.  Much of southern Ivory Coast has
seen little rainfall since the ITCZ moved northward in July, as rains did not return on
schedule during the past 2 months.  This has led to moisture deficits greater then half
of normal which is adversely affecting crops in the area.  Little rain is expected during
November 7-13.

4) Generally, no rainfall was recorded during the past week throughout northern and central
Ethiopia, and little moisture is expected through the current period.  Hydrological dryness
remains due to erratic rainfall patterns during the last rainy season.

5) Locally heavy rainfall, in some areas greater than 150 mm, was recorded during the past
week throughout parts of southern Ethiopia, coastal Kenya, and northeastern Tanzania.
Onshore winds which produced much of the precipitation last week are expected to continue
bringing moisture into the area from November 7-13, and weekly rainfall totals exceeding 
100 mm are again possible.  Local flooding is also possible, mainly in lower elevations,
where saturated soils and upstream rainfall may cause excess runoff.

6) A frontal system is currently situated over southern and central Mozambique, bringing
moderate rainfall to the region.  From November 6-8, this front is expected to move slowly
or stall over the area, bringing additional rains to saturated lands mainly along Inhambane
and Sofala coastal locations.  Although widespread flooding is not likely, some local areas
may experience minor flooding problems associated with the more intense storms.

Author: Timothy Love