WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT
                                
               OCTOBER 30, 2002 DISCUSSION:  

1)   One of the worst droughts in recent history had resulted in wet season rainfall totals around
half of normal across much of Senegal, southern Mauritania, Gambia and portions of western
Mali. Lingering impacts from such drought, such as low reservoirs, low river levels and very
poor pasture conditions continue across the area.  

2)   Scattered thundershowers provided some dryness relief across Cote D'Ivoire and the
surrounding areas. Rainfall amounts, however, remain much below normal, indicating a failure
of the second mini wet season rains (60 day totals are about 30% of normal). This raises concerns
about second-season crops across southern Cote D'Ivoire which depend on these rains. Drier than
normal conditions are also being observed across portions of southern Liberia. 

3)   Dryness in recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water supplies across
the Afar region of  Ethiopia and adjacent areas. No rainfall is expected during the period,
indicating that the dry season is setting in. 

4)   Moist easterly flow off of the Indian Ocean may generate locally heavy rains along the coast
of southern Somalia, Kenya and the northern coast of  Tanzania. Where the heaviest rains fall,
flooding may occur. Widespread flooding, however, is not expected. 

5)   Heavy thunderstorms generated by a frontal system and fueled by moisture from the warm
Mozambique Channel may cause flooding problems across parts of Gaza and Inhambane
provinces in Mozambique through November 1. The greatest flood risk exists across areas near
the coast. Thereafter, drier conditions are expected across the area. 

Author: Chester V. Schmitt