WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
                                
               OCTOBER 9, 2002 DISCUSSION:   

1)   The 2002 rainy season was the driest since at least 1950 across Senegal's Groundnut Basin,
underperforming the abysmal 1983 rainy season. The dryness was accompanied by extreme heat
during June and July. The drought withered crops and resulted in livestock losses across most of
Senegal, Gambia, southern Mauritania and parts of southwestern Mali. Showers are possible
early in the period, which may help to replenish some water supplies. Dry conditions are
expected late in the period. October typically marks the start of the eight month dry season.

2)   After the climatological mini dry season across southern Cote D'Ivoire and Ghana, rains have
been slow to return for the second part of the region's bimodal wet season in southeastern Cote
D'Ivoire, southeastern Liberia and southwestern Ghana. 45-day total rainfall amounts are less
than 40% of normal across much of the area. This has raised concerns over the second season
crops, typically sown in August/September, which depend upon these rains. The potential for
thundershowers exists during the period as a disturbance gets organized over Nigeria. Substantial
rains are needed in order to ensure establishment of the second season crop. 

3)   Heavy rains are expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall across southern portions of
Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, extreme northern Gabon and adjacent parts of Congo during the
period. As a result, the potential for flooding exists across the region.  

4)   Dryness in recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water supplies across
much of the Afar region of Ethiopia. No rainfall is expected during the period, indicating that the
dry season is setting in. 

5)    A drought during the last half of the 2001-02 rainy season had resulted in large moisture        
 deficits across portions of the Limpopo River Basin in southeastern Africa. Recent rains have
helped to ease drought conditions. The outlook for the period calls for seasonably dry and mild
conditions. The rainy season typically starts in November and lasts into April. 

Author: Chester V. Schmitt