WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT OCTOBER 2, 2002 DISCUSSION: 1) The 2002 rainy season was the driest since at least 1950 across Senegal's Groundnut Basin, underperforming the abysmal 1983 rainy season. The dryness was accompanied by extreme heat during June and July. The drought withered crops and resulted in livestock losses across most of Senegal, Gambia, southern Mauritania and parts of southwestern Mali. The potential exists for showers across southwestern Mali late in the period. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain dry as the climatological rainy season comes to a close. 2) After the climatological mini dry season across southern Cote D'Ivoire and Ghana, rains have been slow to return for the second part of the region's bimodal wet season in southeastern Cote D'Ivoire and southwestern Ghana. This has raised concerns over the second season crops, typically sown in August/September, which depend upon these rains. The potential for thundershowers late in the period may indicate a return of the seasonal rains to the area. 3) Slow moving heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected across northern Togo/Benin, northeastern Ghana, southeastern Burkina Faso, west-central Nigeria and adjacent parts of Niger during the period. Rainfall amounts of 200 mm + are possible across the area. As a result, the risk of flooding exists. 4) Dryness in recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water supplies across the Afar region of Ethiopia. No rainfall is expected during the period, indicating that the dry season is setting in. 5) Below normal Meher rains have resulted in dryness across portions of southern Ethiopia and southeastern Sudan. Periodic showers are expected during the period, resulting in some improvement. 6) A drought during the last half of the 2001-02 rainy season has resulted in large moisture deficits across much of the Limpopo River Basin in southeastern Africa. This has resulted in large moisture deficits across the area, with hydrologic drought across the driest areas. Scattered showers are possible throughout the period. The rainy season typically begins in November and lasts into April. Author: Chester V. Schmitt