Weekly Africa Weather Hazards Assessment Explanation September 26-October 2, 2002 1) Weekly rainfall totals in the region including much of Senegal, southern Mali, and west-northwestern Mauritania were generally 1-15 mm from September 17-23. Similar precipitation amounts are expected during the next week throughout the region, although coastal Senegal may receive greater accumulations. The areal average rainfall in western Senegal remains around fifty percent of normal for the season. 2) Parts of central, northern, and western Ethiopia are experiencing continued drought conditions, although 2002 summer season rains were near normal in much of the region. Dryness remains due to the recent years' poor rainfall and a late start to the current monsoon season, as well as erratic precipitation patterns throughout the season. Generally 1-10 mm rainfall was recorded during the past week, and current meteorological forecast models are predicting 10-15 mm during the next week, with locally heavier amounts in the south. Rainfall should continue to weaken during the next weeks, and the situation will be assessed whether to retain a hydrological dryness region in upcoming Hazards Assessments. 3) Current satellite indicators continue to indicate dryness in parts of southwestern Ethiopia and extreme southeastern Sudan, as early season rains were much lighter than normal throughout the region. As the ITCZ has continued moving southward in recent weeks, the area has been experiencing locally heavier rainfall and this pattern is expected to continue during the next week. Most dryness relief should be found on northern edges of the hazard area. 4) Little rainfall was recorded during the previous week in the drought affected areas of southern Zimbabwe, southwestern Mozambique, northeastern South Africa, and eastern Botswana. Current rainfall forecast models are currently indicating a chance for measurable precipitation, up to 50 mm locally, in the region around September 26-28. A low pressure area bringing rainfall to much of South Africa on the 25th is expected to move eastward and bring enhanced convective activity to the hazard region, although rainfall should not pose any flooding concerns. 7) Weekly rainfall greater than 75 mm occurred during the past week in much of the southern Nigeria / Cameroon border area, and similar to slightly higher amounts are expected from September 26-October 3. Local stream flooding is possible in and downstream of the heavier rainfall events. Timothy B Love