WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
                                
                AUGUST 28, 2002 DISCUSSION:  
1)    Beneficial rains fell across Senegal, Gambia, southwestern Mauritania and adjacent portions of Mali  during the past week. However, the rains were not sufficient to end the severe drought which has enveloped the region. Furthermore, according to agriculturalists in Senegal, the rains will not be sufficient enough for the peanuts (crucial to Senegal's economy) to reach maturity.  Little if any rainfall was recorded across Senegal's Groundnut Basin from late June through about August 10th. This dryness was accompanied by extreme heat. This has resulted in the most severe dry spell, by some indicators, in at least 50 years. Seasonal rains are expected across the region during the period. However, these rains may be too little, too late. 
2)   Heavy seasonal rains have resulted in saturated soils and swollen rivers across portions of western Eritrea, northern Ethiopia and adjacent parts of Sudan. An additional 50 to 150 mm of rainfall is expected during the period. As a result, flooding is possible in some areas. 
3)   Dryness in recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water supplies across the Afar region of Ethiopia. Seasonal showers (10 - 40 mm) across the region have resulted in some improvement. Additional rains are needed to replenish water supplies and to revive pastures damaged by long term moisture deficits. Although recent rains have been favorable, a premature end of the main rains across this region may result in rapid deterioration. The main rains typically last into September. Occasional showers are expected throughout the period. Therefore, gradual improvement is expected.  
4)   Lighter than normal rainfall during the months of May, June and July, combined with drier than normal conditions during the first half of August, have reduced moisture for Meher crops across portions of southwestern Ethiopia and adjacent parts of southeastern Sudan. Seasonal showers (5 - 30 mm) during the past week have resulted in some improvement. Scattered showers are expected throughout the period. As a result, gradual improvement is anticipated. 
5)   A drought during the last half of the 2001-02 rainy season has resulted in large moisture           deficits across much of the upper Limpopo River Basin in southeastern Africa. This has resulted in large moisture deficits across the area. A storm system is expected to drop 10 to 30+ mm of rainfall across the region during the week. NOTE: the extent of the hydrologic drought area as depicted by the graphic has been cut back from its previous extent due to reports from the field of adequate groundwater and reservoir storage.
 
6)   Rainfall totals of greater than 100 mm across much of southeastern Nigeria and central Cameroon during the past week combined with additional heavy rains expected during the period has resulted in the potential for flooding. Widespread flooding problems, however, are not anticipated. 
Author: Chester V. Schmitt