WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT AUGUST 20, 2002 DISCUSSION: 1) Beneficial showers fall across Senegal and southwestern Mauritania during the past week. However, the rains were not sufficient to end the severe drought which has enveloped the region. Little if any rainfall was recorded across Senegal's Groundnut Basin from late June through about August 10th. This dryness was accompanied by extreme heat. This has resulted in the most severe dry spell in over 50 years. Intermittent showers are expected throughout the period. However, the showers will not be enough to result in significant improvement. 2) Heavy seasonal rains have resulted in saturated soils and swollen rivers across portions of western Eritrea and northern Ethiopia. An additional 50 to 150 mm of rainfall is expected during the period. As a result, flooding is possible in some areas. 3) Dryness in recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water supplies across the Afar region of Ethiopia. Seasonal showers (10 - 30 mm) across the region has resulted in some improvement. Additional rains are needed to replenish water supplies and to revive pastures damaged by long term moisture deficits. Although recent rains have been favorable, a premature end of the main rains across this region may result in rapid deterioration. The main rains typically last into September. Occasional showers are expected throughout the period. Therefore, gradual improvement is expected. 4) A drought during the last half of the 2001-02 rainy season has resulted in large moisture deficits across much of the Limpopo River Basin in southeastern Africa. This has resulted in large moisture deficits across the area. Major improvement is not expected until at least November, when the rainy season usually begins. 5) A storm system is expected to impact Western Cape and portions of Eastern Cape, South Africa during the 23rd and 24th of August. Locally heavy rains are expected, and as a result the risk for flooding exists. The hazard area includes Cape Town, Port Elizabeth and East London. 6) Below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures have resulted in short term dryness across portions of eastern Burkina Faso, northern Togo and adjacent parts of northeastern Ghana. This combination of relative dryness and heat may have negative impacts on regional agriculture and may reduce water supplies. Seasonal showers are expected throughout the period. However, rainfall amounts for the period are expected to run below normal. 7) Lighter than normal rainfall during the months of May, June and July, combined with drier than normal conditions during the first half of August, has reduced moisture for Meher crops across portions of southwestern Ethiopia and adjacent parts of southeastern Sudan. Scattered showers are expected throughout the period. Author: Chester V. Schmitt