WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
                                
                AUGUST 7, 2002 DISCUSSION:   

1)   Tropical waves continue to by-pass much of Gambia, Senegal and adjacent portions of Mali
and Mauritania. This has resulted in little if any rainfall throughout July and so far in August,
despite good rains in June. Furthermore, scorching temperatures have resulted in daily
temperature anomalies of up to 10 deg C over the past 60 days. The combination of extreme heat
and little rainfall has resulted in rapidly worsening drought conditions, with the worst conditions
being observed across central Senegal. The potential for scattered showers exists during the
period, with the best chance of measurable precipitation in the southern and eastern portions of
the hazard area. However, the overall trend of easterly waves by-passing the region is expected to
continue. As a result, the potential for significant relief during the period is very low. With the
climatological wet season about half way over across the area, significant rains are needed very
soon. 

2)  Rainfall during the past several weeks has been lighter than normal across portions of east-
central Sudan. This has resulted in dryness which may stress crops across parts of the area. The
potential for seasonal showers exists during the period. As a result, improvement is expected. 

3)  Dryness in recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water supplies across
the Afar region of Ethiopia and southern portions of Eritrea. Recent rainfall across the region has
resulted in some improvement, however several more weeks of steady rainfall are needed to
replenish the pastures, wells and reservoirs across the area. Seasonal showers are expected across
the area during the period. As a result, gradual improvement should continue. 

4)   Below normal rainfall during the past 3 to 6 months has resulted in dryness along the Kenya
and Somalia coasts. Isolated showers are possible along the Kenya coast. Otherwise, conditions
are expected to remain mostly dry across the areas. 
 
5)   A drought during the last half of the 2001-02 rainy season has resulted in large moisture          
deficits across much of the Limpopo River Basin in southeastern Africa. This has reduced water
availability to reservoirs, wells and rivers across the area. Major improvement is not expected
until at least November, when the rainy season usually begins. 
  
Author: Chester V. Schmitt