WEEKLY AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
                        
JULY 25, 2002 DISCUSSION:  

1)  Little to no rainfall was observed during the past week throughout most of the dry area depicted
    as Hazard #1, though some moderate rainfall was recorded during July 22-23 near and north of 
    Dessie along the western Afar region in Ethiopia.  These rains did fail, however, to progress
    further eastward into lower elevations, and the area remains dry for the month.  Although rains
    should have fallen in central Eritrea the past 2 weeks, little precipitation has been recorded in
    this area as well.

2)  Spotty showers fell in southern coastal areas of Kenya during the past week, but dryness was
    observed throughout the remainder of coast into southern Somalia.  Although little to no
    rainfall is predicted in the northern parts of the hazard area, meteorological models are
    forecasting the possibility for moderate rains further south.  While these rains should remain
    mainly to the south of Kenya, it is possible for northeastern Tanzania to pick up some
    precipitation during the next few days.

3)  Heavy rains in excess of 100 mm locally for the past week fell in areas of southern Mozambique
    and southeastern Zimbabwe, with widespread amounts greater than 50 mm noted.  These rains have
    helped to reduce dryness throughout the area, as river and reservoir levels are reported to
    be notably higher than previously recorded.  Only locally light rainfall is possible during
    the next period.

4)  Heavy snowfall occurred from the 17th-21st in parts of southeastern South Africa and Lesotho,
    followed by heavy rains in some regions.  Although little precipitation is likely between
    July 25-30, some rain/snow could occur around the 27th-28th as another system passes to the 
    south.  Nevertheless, the high snow and rain amounts that occurred over the area may lead to
    periods of local flooding through the next week as runoff continues.  Colder than normal
    temperatures are also possible, especially during early next week.

5)  Rainfall amounts in excess of 200 mm for the week occurred throughout parts of central and 
    southeastern Nigeria from July 16-22.  These anomalously high totals have lead to saturated
    soil conditions and high soil moisture contents, making the possiblity of local flooding
    likely.  With forecast rainfall again in excess of 100 mm locally for the week, flooding may
    again occur throughout the area, but mainly along the highlighted river basin regions.

6)  With the ITCZ located south of its normal position in extreme western Africa, dryness has
    emerged in parts of Senegal, The Gambia, and Guinea Bissau.  Little rainfall has been recorded
    during the past 30 days throughout much of the groundnut basin in Senegal, although rains have
    been closer to normal in the east.  The driest area appears to be west central Senegal, and
    rainfall forecast models are not indicating a good chance for precipitation during the next
    week.

7)  Rainfall totals in parts of southwestern Niger and adjacent portions of Burkina Faso and Mali
    are running 15-50 mm below normal since July 1.  This, along with drier than normal conditions 
    forecast for the next week, has prompted a dryness watch for the area.  Though seasonal rainfall
    normally begins from late June to mid July in the region, latest 10 day rainfall totals were
    less than 25mm throughout much of the area.

8)  Dryness has been relieved in portions of eastern Sudan during the past week, as healthy rains
    fell in parts of the Upper Nile and Blue Nile river basins.  Although precipitation totals
    greater than 50 mm were recorded in these areas, rainfall remained lighter than normal in parts
    to the southwest.  Weekly rainfall deficits on the order of 25 mm are common in the area
    experiencing dryness, though forecasts indicate a chance for 7-day accumulations between 25-50 mm.


Timothy B Love